Predictions / Football / Japan. J2 League / Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata

Prediction Audit: Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare
Aug 15, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata

AI correctly predicted the Shonan Bellmare win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Montedio Yamagata considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Montedio Yamagata +11.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shonan Bellmare 35.2% 46.1% -10.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.8% -0.2 pp Aligned
Montedio Yamagata 35.2% 24.1% +11.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Montedio Yamagata's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Shonan Bellmare win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Montedio Yamagata.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Shonan Bellmare more conservatively (24.1% vs model 35.2%, 11.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Shonan Bellmare win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shonan Bellmare 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Montedio Yamagata 35.2%
    • xG · Shonan Bellmare 1.30 — Montedio Yamagata 1.30
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 09:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shonan Bellmare 2.05 · Draw 3.17 · Montedio Yamagata 3.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Shonan Bellmare 46.1% · Draw 29.8% · Montedio Yamagata 24.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shonan Bellmare 2.05 · Draw 3.17 · Montedio Yamagata 3.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Shonan Bellmare 46.1% · Draw 29.8% · Montedio Yamagata 24.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Shonan Bellmare win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3340549

Closing Odds 3.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Shonan Bellmare win · Shonan Bellmare 1–0 Montedio Yamagata
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: J2 League
  • Fixture: Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Shonan Bellmare 1.3 — Montedio Yamagata 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Montedio Yamagata
  • Model: 35.2% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: -10.9 pts · Est. EV: -13.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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J2 League J2 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vegalta Sendai 8 5 2 1 17
2 Omiya Ardija 8 4 4 0 16
3 Albirex Niigata 8 5 1 2 16
4 Shonan Bellmare 8 4 3 1 15
5 Kataller Toyama 8 4 2 2 14
6 Yokohama FC 8 4 2 2 14
7 Tokushima Vortis 8 4 1 3 13
8 Montedio Yamagata 8 4 0 4 12
9 Fujieda MYFC 8 3 3 2 12
10 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 8 3 2 3 11
11 Tochigi City 8 3 1 4 10
12 Blaublitz Akita 8 2 4 2 10
13 Jubilo Iwata 8 3 1 4 10
14 Vanraure Hachinohe 8 3 1 4 10
15 Iwaki 8 3 0 5 9
16 Oita Trinita 8 1 5 2 8
17 Sagan Tosu 8 2 2 4 8
18 Ventforet Kofu 8 2 1 5 7
19 Consadole Sapporo 8 1 2 5 5
20 Imabari 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Omiya Ardija 8 16 7 +9 16
2 Kataller Toyama 8 16 8 +8 14
3 Yokohama FC 8 16 11 +5 14
4 Vegalta Sendai 8 15 7 +8 17
5 Tochigi City 8 14 13 +1 10
6 Fujieda MYFC 8 12 9 +3 12
7 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 8 12 12 0 11
8 Blaublitz Akita 8 11 10 +1 10
9 Albirex Niigata 8 11 12 -1 16
10 Iwaki 8 11 15 -4 9
11 Montedio Yamagata 8 10 6 +4 12
12 Jubilo Iwata 8 10 11 -1 10
13 Consadole Sapporo 8 10 17 -7 5
14 Shonan Bellmare 8 9 7 +2 15
15 Tokushima Vortis 8 8 8 0 13
16 Sagan Tosu 8 8 11 -3 8
17 Oita Trinita 8 7 6 +1 8
18 Imabari 8 7 17 -10 4
19 Ventforet Kofu 8 6 15 -9 7
20 Vanraure Hachinohe 8 5 12 -7 10
J2 League Japan. J2 League Predictions