The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Qatar U23 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Qatar U23 Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Waab | 33.8% | 46.1% | -12.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Qatar U23 | 36.6% | 29.0% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Al Waab's win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Al Waab than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Qatar U23; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Qatar U23 by 12.3 percentage points (48.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Waab 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Qatar U23 36.6%
- xG · Al Waab 1.27 — Qatar U23 1.33
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Waab 1.95 · Draw 3.60 · Qatar U23 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Al Waab 46.1% · Draw 24.9% · Qatar U23 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Al Waab 1.95 · Draw 3.60 · Qatar U23 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Al Waab 46.1% · Draw 24.9% · Qatar U23 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Bidda SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Waab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Muaither SC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Kharaitiyat | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Mesaimeer | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | UMM Salal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa B | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Shamal II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 3 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Bidda SC | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 3 | Muaither SC | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Al-Khor | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Al Kharaitiyat | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 | UMM Salal | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Mesaimeer | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa B | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Rayyan SC B | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Shamal II | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
