The model missed the final outcome (Al Mesaimeer win 1–0).
The model had projected Muaither SC at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Muaither SC Al Mesaimeer ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Mesaimeer | 34.7% | 36.3% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.2% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Muaither SC | 35.6% | 37.5% | -1.9 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Al Mesaimeer win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Muaither SC; match finished Al Mesaimeer
Market lesson
The full-time result was Al Mesaimeer win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Mesaimeer 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Muaither SC 35.6%
- xG · Al Mesaimeer 1.29 — Muaither SC 1.31
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Mesaimeer 2.42 · Draw 3.52 · Muaither SC 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Al Mesaimeer 36.7% · Draw 25.3% · Muaither SC 38.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Mesaimeer 2.48 · Draw 3.44 · Muaither SC 2.40
- Implied 1X2 · Al Mesaimeer 36.3% · Draw 26.2% · Muaither SC 37.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Mesaimeer win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Bidda SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Waab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Muaither SC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Kharaitiyat | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Mesaimeer | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | UMM Salal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa B | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Shamal II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 3 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Bidda SC | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 3 | Muaither SC | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Al-Khor | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Al Kharaitiyat | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 | UMM Salal | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Mesaimeer | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa B | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Rayyan SC B | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Shamal II | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
