Predictions / Football / Kosovo. Superliga / Drita vs Llapi

Prediction Audit: Drita vs Llapi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Drita Drita
Aug 16, 2026 - 14:30
5 1.39
3 1.21
xG Accuracy: 23%
Llapi Llapi

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Drita Drita ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Drita win · 5–3

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3360764

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Drita win · Drita 5–3 Llapi
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Superliga
  • Fixture: Drita vs Llapi
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Drita 1.39 — Llapi 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Superliga Superliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Prishtina 13 10 2 1 32
2 Malisheva 13 8 3 2 27
3 Drita 13 7 3 3 24
4 Gjilani 13 6 4 3 22
5 Ballkani 13 6 1 6 19
6 Dukagjini 13 4 6 3 18
7 Feronikeli 13 4 3 6 15
8 Drenica Skënderaj 13 2 6 5 12
9 Llapi 13 2 2 9 8
10 Vushtrria 13 1 0 12 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Malisheva 13 27 11 +16 27
2 Prishtina 13 25 10 +15 32
3 Drita 13 19 11 +8 24
4 Gjilani 13 19 13 +6 22
5 Ballkani 13 17 11 +6 19
6 Drenica Skënderaj 13 13 20 -7 12
7 Dukagjini 13 11 11 0 18
8 Feronikeli 13 11 16 -5 15
9 Llapi 13 11 26 -15 8
10 Vushtrria 13 7 31 -24 3
Superliga Kosovo. Superliga Predictions