Prediction Audit: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Aug 13, 2026 - 19:00

5 1.33

1 1.27

xG Accuracy: 34%

Shamrock Rovers

AI correctly predicted the Egnatia Rrogozhinë win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë Egnatia Rrogozhinë ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Egnatia Rrogozhinë	36.6%	44.5%	-7.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	25.9%	+3.7 pp	Aligned
Shamrock Rovers	33.8%	29.6%	+4.2 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Egnatia Rrogozhinë's win probability at 44.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 5–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Egnatia Rrogozhinë higher (44.5% vs model 36.6%, 7.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 5–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 13, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Shamrock Rovers 33.8%
- xG · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.33 — Shamrock Rovers 1.27
Aug 13, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2.13 · Draw 3.57 · Shamrock Rovers 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 44.1% · Draw 26.3% · Shamrock Rovers 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 13, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2.11 · Draw 3.62 · Shamrock Rovers 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 44.5% · Draw 25.9% · Shamrock Rovers 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 13, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Egnatia Rrogozhinë win · 5–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3153751

Closing Odds 2.11

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Egnatia Rrogozhinë win · Egnatia Rrogozhinë 5–1 Shamrock Rovers

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: UEFA Europa League
Fixture: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shamrock Rovers
Kickoff: 2026-08-13 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.33 — Shamrock Rovers 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Europa League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Juventus	1	1	0	0	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	1	0	0	3
4	Besiktas	1	1	0	0	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	1	0	0	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	1	0	0	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	3
9	OFI	1	1	0	0	3
10	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	3
11	Lyon	1	1	0	0	3
12	Torreense	1	1	0	0	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	1	0	0	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	0	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	0	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	0	0	1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	0	0	1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	0	0	1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	0	0	1	0
28	Celtic	1	0	0	1	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	0
30	AC Milan	1	0	0	1	0
31	Celje	1	0	0	1	0
32	Marseille	1	0	0	1	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	0	0	1	0
34	Plzen	1	0	0	1	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Juventus	1	5	0	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	4	0	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	4	1	+3	3
4	Besiktas	1	4	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	3	0	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	3	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	2	0	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	2	0	+2	3
9	OFI	1	2	0	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	2	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	2	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	2	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	2	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	+1	3
17	Jagiellonia	1	1	2	-1	0
18	Real Sociedad	1	1	2	-1	0
19	Anderlecht	1	1	2	-1	0
20	Lillestrom	1	1	2	-1	0
21	Celtic	1	1	3	-2	0
22	Marseille	1	1	4	-3	0
23	Ararat-Armenia	1	1	4	-3	0
24	Sturm Graz	1	0	0	0	1
25	Rennes	1	0	0	0	1
26	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	0	0	1
27	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	0	0	1
28	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	-1	0
29	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	1	-1	0
30	Levski Sofia	1	0	1	-1	0
31	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	2	-2	0
32	AC Milan	1	0	2	-2	0
33	Celje	1	0	2	-2	0
34	Plzen	1	0	3	-3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	4	-4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	5	-5	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	2.5	0.5	+2.0	3
2	Sunderland	1	2.9	1.5	+1.4	3
3	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1.9	0.9	+1.0	3
4	Rennes	1	1.8	0.8	+1.0	1
5	Celta Vigo	1	1.2	0.3	+0.9	0
6	Sparta Praha	1	2.5	1.9	+0.6	3
7	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0.8	0.3	+0.5	1
8	AC Milan	1	1.0	0.6	+0.4	0
9	Anderlecht	1	1.4	1.3	+0.1	0
10	Lyon	1	1.3	1.4	-0.1	3
11	Benfica	1	0.6	1.0	-0.4	3
12	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0.3	0.8	-0.5	1
13	Ararat-Armenia	1	1.9	2.5	-0.6	0
14	Omonia Nicosia	1	0.3	1.2	-0.9	3
15	Celje	1	0.9	1.9	-1.0	0
16	Sturm Graz	1	0.8	1.8	-1.0	1
17	AZ Alkmaar	1	1.5	2.9	-1.4	0
18	Jagiellonia	1	0.5	2.5	-2.0	0
19	Juventus	1	—	—	—	3
20	Crystal Palace	1	—	—	—	3
21	Besiktas	1	—	—	—	3
22	Union St. Gilloise	1	—	—	—	3
23	Ferencvarosi TC	1	—	—	—	3
24	OFI	1	—	—	—	3
25	Bournemouth	1	—	—	—	3
26	Torreense	1	—	—	—	3
27	Red Bull Salzburg	1	—	—	—	3
28	Real Sociedad	1	—	—	—	0
29	Lillestrom	1	—	—	—	0
30	Levski Sofia	1	—	—	—	0
31	Celtic	1	—	—	—	0
32	1899 Hoffenheim	1	—	—	—	0
33	Marseille	1	—	—	—	0
34	Plzen	1	—	—	—	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	—	—	—	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	—	—	—	0