Predictions / Football / Brazil. Goiano - 2 / Bom Jesus EC vs Crixás EC

Prediction Audit: Bom Jesus EC vs Crixás EC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bom Jesus EC Bom Jesus EC
Sep 06, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Crixás EC Crixás EC

AI correctly predicted the Bom Jesus EC win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bom Jesus EC Bom Jesus EC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bom Jesus EC win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 08:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bom Jesus EC 1.32 — Crixás EC 1.28
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Bom Jesus EC win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6372497

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bom Jesus EC win · Bom Jesus EC 2–1 Crixás EC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Goiano - 2
  • Fixture: Bom Jesus EC vs Crixás EC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Bom Jesus EC 1.32 — Crixás EC 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Goiano - 2 Goiano - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rio Verde 16 9 5 2 32
2 Bom Jesus EC 16 7 7 2 28
3 Mineiros 16 7 4 5 25
4 Goianésia 15 6 6 3 24
5 Morrinhos 16 6 4 6 22
6 Goiânia 16 4 8 4 20
7 Tupy FC 15 4 6 5 18
8 Crixás EC 16 3 7 6 16
9 Trindade 16 2 6 8 12
10 Grêmio Anápolis 16 2 5 9 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rio Verde 16 25 11 +14 32
2 Morrinhos 16 22 21 +1 22
3 Bom Jesus EC 16 21 13 +8 28
4 Goianésia 15 18 17 +1 24
5 Crixás EC 16 18 23 -5 16
6 Mineiros 16 17 14 +3 25
7 Grêmio Anápolis 16 16 27 -11 11
8 Tupy FC 15 13 13 0 18
9 Goiânia 16 13 14 -1 20
10 Trindade 16 13 23 -10 12
Goiano - 2 Brazil. Goiano - 2 Predictions