AI correctly predicted the Bom Jesus EC win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bom Jesus EC Bom Jesus EC ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bom Jesus EC | 37.1% | 64.1% | -27.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.5% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Grêmio Anápolis | 33.3% | 12.4% | +20.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Bom Jesus EC's win probability at 64.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 27.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bom Jesus EC win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bom Jesus EC higher (64.1% vs model 37.1%, 27.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bom Jesus EC win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bom Jesus EC 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Grêmio Anápolis 33.4%
- xG · Bom Jesus EC 1.34 — Grêmio Anápolis 1.26
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bom Jesus EC 1.61 · Draw 3.36 · Grêmio Anápolis 4.81
- Implied 1X2 · Bom Jesus EC 55.1% · Draw 26.4% · Grêmio Anápolis 18.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bom Jesus EC 1.40 · Draw 3.82 · Grêmio Anápolis 7.22
- Implied 1X2 · Bom Jesus EC 64.1% · Draw 23.5% · Grêmio Anápolis 12.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bom Jesus EC win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Goiano - 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 | Bom Jesus EC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 |
| 4 | Morrinhos | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Mineiros | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Grêmio Anápolis | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 |
| 10 | Trindade | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 14 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Morrinhos | 14 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 19 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 14 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 24 |
| 4 | Bom Jesus EC | 14 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 | Crixás EC | 14 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 |
| 6 | Mineiros | 14 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 19 |
| 7 | Grêmio Anápolis | 14 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Tupy FC | 15 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 18 |
| 9 | Goiânia | 15 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Trindade | 14 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 |
