AI correctly predicted the Goianésia win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Goianésia Goianésia ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goianésia | 39.0% | 45.3% | -6.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 31.5% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Morrinhos | 31.5% | 23.2% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Morrinhos's win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.2%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Goianésia win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Morrinhos.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Goianésia more conservatively (30.7% vs model 39.0%, 8.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Goianésia win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Goianésia 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Morrinhos 31.5%
- xG · Goianésia 1.38 — Morrinhos 1.22
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Goianésia 1.96 · Draw 2.82 · Morrinhos 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Goianésia 45.3% · Draw 31.5% · Morrinhos 23.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Goianésia 1.96 · Draw 2.82 · Morrinhos 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Goianésia 45.3% · Draw 31.5% · Morrinhos 23.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Goianésia win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Goiano - 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 | Bom Jesus EC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 |
| 4 | Morrinhos | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Mineiros | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Grêmio Anápolis | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 |
| 10 | Trindade | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 14 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Morrinhos | 14 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 19 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 14 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 24 |
| 4 | Bom Jesus EC | 14 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 | Crixás EC | 14 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 |
| 6 | Mineiros | 14 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 19 |
| 7 | Grêmio Anápolis | 14 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Tupy FC | 15 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 18 |
| 9 | Goiânia | 15 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Trindade | 14 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 |
