Predictions / Football / Brazil. Goiano - 2 / Crixás EC vs Morrinhos

Prediction Audit: Crixás EC vs Morrinhos Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Crixás EC Crixás EC
Aug 08, 2026 - 18:30
3 1.38
3 1.22
xG Accuracy: 39%
Morrinhos Morrinhos

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Crixás EC at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Crixás EC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Crixás EC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 3–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Crixás EC 1.38 — Morrinhos 1.22
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2829669

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Crixás EC 3–3 Morrinhos
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Goiano - 2
  • Fixture: Crixás EC vs Morrinhos
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Crixás EC 1.38 — Morrinhos 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Goiano - 2 Goiano - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rio Verde 16 9 5 2 32
2 Bom Jesus EC 16 7 7 2 28
3 Mineiros 16 7 4 5 25
4 Goianésia 15 6 6 3 24
5 Morrinhos 16 6 4 6 22
6 Goiânia 16 4 8 4 20
7 Tupy FC 15 4 6 5 18
8 Crixás EC 16 3 7 6 16
9 Trindade 16 2 6 8 12
10 Grêmio Anápolis 16 2 5 9 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rio Verde 16 25 11 +14 32
2 Morrinhos 16 22 21 +1 22
3 Bom Jesus EC 16 21 13 +8 28
4 Goianésia 15 18 17 +1 24
5 Crixás EC 16 18 23 -5 16
6 Mineiros 16 17 14 +3 25
7 Grêmio Anápolis 16 16 27 -11 11
8 Tupy FC 15 13 13 0 18
9 Goiânia 16 13 14 -1 20
10 Trindade 16 13 23 -10 12
Goiano - 2 Brazil. Goiano - 2 Predictions