The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Neftochimic Burgas at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Neftochimic Burgas Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Neftochimic Burgas; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Sekirovo 1.15 — Neftochimic Burgas 1.45
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sekirovo 2–2 Neftochimic Burgas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Third League - Southeast — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Krumovgrad | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Spartak Plovdiv | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Maritsa Milevo | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Sayana Haskovo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Yambol 1915 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Sozopol | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Gigant Saedinenie | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Neftochimic Burgas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Rozova dolina | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Rodopa Smolyan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Zagorets | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Botev Plovdiv II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Dimitrovgrad | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletik Kuklen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Sekirovo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 17 | Levski Karlovo | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 18 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Krumovgrad | 8 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 24 |
| 2 | Yambol 1915 | 8 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 16 |
| 3 | Spartak Plovdiv | 8 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 | Maritsa Milevo | 8 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Sozopol | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Gigant Saedinenie | 8 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sayana Haskovo | 8 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
| 8 | Neftochimic Burgas | 8 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Rodopa Smolyan | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Botev Plovdiv II | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Sekirovo | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 5 |
| 12 | Dimitrovgrad | 8 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Rozova dolina | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 14 | Zagorets | 8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 8 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Atletik Kuklen | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 6 |
| 17 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 8 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 1 |
| 18 | Levski Karlovo | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 |
