The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Sloboda Tuzla at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sloboda Tuzla Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitez | 31.9% | 39.4% | -7.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.6% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Sloboda Tuzla | 38.5% | 33.1% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Vitez's win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Vitez. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Sloboda Tuzla; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sloboda Tuzla by 7.4 percentage points (45.9% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vitez 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Sloboda Tuzla 38.5%
- xG · Vitez 1.23 — Sloboda Tuzla 1.37
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vitez 2.26 · Draw 3.23 · Sloboda Tuzla 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Vitez 39.4% · Draw 27.6% · Sloboda Tuzla 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Vitez 2.26 · Draw 3.23 · Sloboda Tuzla 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Vitez 39.4% · Draw 27.6% · Sloboda Tuzla 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1st League - FBiH — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travnik | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Posušje | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Čapljina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tomislav | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Vitez | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 15 |
| 2 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Travnik | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 | Posušje | 6 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 | Tomislav | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 11 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Čapljina | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 13 | Vitez | 6 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
