The model missed the final outcome (Mortágua win 3–1).
The model had projected Nazarenos at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Nazarenos Mortágua ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | 34.7% | 53.9% | -19.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.5% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Nazarenos | 35.6% | 17.6% | +18.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Mortágua's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 19.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Mortágua win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Mortágua than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Nazarenos; match finished Mortágua
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Nazarenos by 19.2 percentage points (54.8% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mortágua 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Nazarenos 35.6%
- xG · Mortágua 1.29 — Nazarenos 1.31
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mortágua 1.65 · Draw 3.12 · Nazarenos 5.04
- Implied 1X2 · Mortágua 53.9% · Draw 28.5% · Nazarenos 17.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mortágua 1.65 · Draw 3.12 · Nazarenos 5.04
- Implied 1X2 · Mortágua 53.9% · Draw 28.5% · Nazarenos 17.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mortágua win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Oliveira Hospital | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Naval 1º de Maio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | AD Nogueirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Atlético Malveira | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Sertanense | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | Fazendense | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | FC Alverca II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Nazarenos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | AD Nogueirense | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 5 | Oliveira Hospital | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | UD da Serra | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Naval 1º de Maio | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Fátima | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Fazendense | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | O Elvas | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 11 | Atlético Malveira | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | FC Alverca II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Nazarenos | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
