The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Salgueiros at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Salgueiros Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salgueiros | 36.6% | 39.9% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.6% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Machico | 33.8% | 28.5% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Machico's win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.5%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Machico.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Salgueiros; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Salgueiros by 5.3 percentage points (31.3% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Salgueiros 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Machico 33.8%
- xG · Salgueiros 1.33 — Machico 1.27
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Salgueiros 2.23 · Draw 2.81 · Machico 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · Salgueiros 39.9% · Draw 31.6% · Machico 28.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Salgueiros 2.23 · Draw 2.81 · Machico 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · Salgueiros 39.9% · Draw 31.6% · Machico 28.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Machico | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Camacha | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Florgrade | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Salgueiros | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Sanjoanense | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | União Lamas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Castro Daire | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Beira-Mar | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Alpendorada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Guarda | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Estrela Calheta | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 4 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Camacha | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Machico | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 4 | Sanjoanense | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | União Lamas | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Florgrade | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Salgueiros | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Beira-Mar | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Alpendorada | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Sousense | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Castro Daire | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Estrela Calheta | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
