The model missed the final outcome (Camacha win 1–2).
The model had projected Alpendorada at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Alpendorada Camacha ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpendorada | 39.9% | 38.6% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 32.2% | -2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Camacha | 30.6% | 29.1% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Camacha win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Alpendorada; match finished Camacha
Market lesson
The full-time result was Camacha win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Alpendorada 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Camacha 30.6%
- xG · Alpendorada 1.40 — Camacha 1.20
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Alpendorada 2.30 · Draw 2.76 · Camacha 3.05
- Implied 1X2 · Alpendorada 38.6% · Draw 32.2% · Camacha 29.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Alpendorada 2.30 · Draw 2.76 · Camacha 3.05
- Implied 1X2 · Alpendorada 38.6% · Draw 32.2% · Camacha 29.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Camacha win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Machico | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Camacha | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Florgrade | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Salgueiros | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Sanjoanense | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | União Lamas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Castro Daire | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Beira-Mar | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Alpendorada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Guarda | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Estrela Calheta | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 4 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Camacha | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Machico | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 4 | Sanjoanense | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | União Lamas | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Florgrade | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Salgueiros | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Beira-Mar | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Alpendorada | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Sousense | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Castro Daire | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Estrela Calheta | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
