The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Vila Meã at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Vila Meã Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Meã | 37.5% | 36.3% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.9% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Os Limianos | 32.9% | 31.9% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Vila Meã; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vila Meã 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Os Limianos 32.9%
- xG · Vila Meã 1.35 — Os Limianos 1.25
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vila Meã 2.45 · Draw 2.79 · Os Limianos 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Vila Meã 36.3% · Draw 31.9% · Os Limianos 31.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Vila Meã 2.45 · Draw 2.79 · Os Limianos 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Vila Meã 36.3% · Draw 31.9% · Os Limianos 31.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Vila Meã & Os Limianos!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bragança | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Tirsense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Chaves II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | SC Braga B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Vila Meã | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Os Limianos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Celoricense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montalegre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Brito | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Braga B | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 8 |
| 2 | Bragança | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Tirsense | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Vila Meã | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Os Limianos | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Montalegre | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Chaves II | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Brito | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 9 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Celoricense | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Rebordosa | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
