The model missed the final outcome (Os Limianos win 3–1).
The model had projected Chaves II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Chaves II Os Limianos ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Os Limianos | 33.8% | 41.7% | -7.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.5% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Chaves II | 36.6% | 27.8% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Chaves II's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.8%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Os Limianos win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Chaves II.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Chaves II; match finished Os Limianos
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Chaves II by 8.8 percentage points (27.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Os Limianos 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Chaves II 36.6%
- xG · Os Limianos 1.27 — Chaves II 1.33
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Os Limianos 2.13 · Draw 2.91 · Chaves II 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Os Limianos 41.7% · Draw 30.5% · Chaves II 27.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Os Limianos 2.13 · Draw 2.91 · Chaves II 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Os Limianos 41.7% · Draw 30.5% · Chaves II 27.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Os Limianos win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bragança | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Tirsense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Chaves II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | SC Braga B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Vila Meã | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Os Limianos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Celoricense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montalegre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Brito | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Braga B | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 8 |
| 2 | Bragança | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Tirsense | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Vila Meã | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Os Limianos | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Montalegre | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Chaves II | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Brito | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 9 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Celoricense | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Rebordosa | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
