The model missed the final outcome (Delfines Del Este win 0–1).
The model had projected Cibao at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Cibao Delfines Del Este ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cibao | 39.5% | 42.5% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 37.7% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Delfines Del Este | 31.0% | 19.8% | +11.2 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Delfines Del Este's win probability at 31.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.8%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Delfines Del Este win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Delfines Del Este.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Cibao; match finished Delfines Del Este
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cibao by 11.2 percentage points (28.3% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cibao 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Delfines Del Este 31.0%
- xG · Cibao 1.39 — Delfines Del Este 1.21
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cibao 2.09 · Draw 2.36 · Delfines Del Este 4.49
- Implied 1X2 · Cibao 42.5% · Draw 37.7% · Delfines Del Este 19.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cibao 2.09 · Draw 2.36 · Delfines Del Este 4.49
- Implied 1X2 · Cibao 42.5% · Draw 37.7% · Delfines Del Este 19.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Delfines Del Este win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Mayor — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 | Delfines Del Este | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Cibao | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Moca | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Vega Real | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 6 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | Vega Real | 7 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Universidad O&M | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Cibao | 7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 |
| 5 | Delfines Del Este | 7 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Moca | 7 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atlántico | 8 | 6 | 26 | -20 | |
| 8 | Jarabacoa | 7 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
