Predictions / Football / Brazil. Carioca B2 / Barra Mansa vs Paraty

Prediction Audit: Barra Mansa vs Paraty Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Barra Mansa Barra Mansa
Sep 06, 2026 - 17:45
2 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 74%
Paraty Paraty

The model missed the final outcome (Barra Mansa win 2–1).

The model had projected Paraty at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Paraty Barra Mansa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Paraty; match finished Barra Mansa

Market lesson

The full-time result was Barra Mansa win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 08:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Barra Mansa 1.24 — Paraty 1.36
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Barra Mansa win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6371102

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Barra Mansa win · Barra Mansa 2–1 Paraty
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Carioca B2
  • Fixture: Barra Mansa vs Paraty
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Barra Mansa 1.24 — Paraty 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca B2 Carioca B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Friburguense 7 5 2 0 17
2 Serra Macaense 7 4 1 2 13
3 Cardoso Moreira 7 4 1 2 13
4 SE Belford Roxo 7 3 3 1 12
5 Santa Cruz RJ 7 4 0 3 12
6 Paduano 7 3 2 2 11
7 Rio de Janeiro 7 3 1 3 10
8 7 de Abril 7 3 1 3 10
9 Campos AA 7 2 3 2 9
10 Barra Mansa 7 1 4 2 7
11 Búzios 7 1 0 6 3
12 Paraty 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SE Belford Roxo 7 14 6 +8 12
2 Serra Macaense 7 14 8 +6 13
3 Friburguense 7 12 4 +8 17
4 Rio de Janeiro 7 11 7 +4 10
5 Campos AA 7 11 11 0 9
6 7 de Abril 7 10 10 0 10
7 Cardoso Moreira 7 9 5 +4 13
8 Paduano 7 9 6 +3 11
9 Santa Cruz RJ 7 9 8 +1 12
10 Barra Mansa 7 6 10 -4 7
11 Búzios 7 5 18 -13 3
12 Paraty 7 4 21 -17 0
Carioca B2 Brazil. Carioca B2 Predictions