Predictions / Football / Armenia. First League / Lernayin Artsakh vs Sardarapat 2

Prediction Audit: Lernayin Artsakh vs Sardarapat 2 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lernayin Artsakh Lernayin Artsakh
Sep 15, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.17
2 1.43
xG Accuracy: 39%
⚽
Sardarapat 2

The model missed the final outcome (Lernayin Artsakh win 4–2).

The model had projected Sardarapat 2 at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sardarapat 2 Lernayin Artsakh ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sardarapat 2; match finished Lernayin Artsakh

Market lesson

The full-time result was Lernayin Artsakh win 4–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 09, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Lernayin Artsakh 1.17 — Sardarapat 2 1.43
  2. Sep 15, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Lernayin Artsakh win · 4–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7701102

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lernayin Artsakh win · Lernayin Artsakh 4–2 Sardarapat 2
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Lernayin Artsakh vs Sardarapat 2
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-15 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Lernayin Artsakh 1.17 — Sardarapat 2 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Olympia Yerevan 8 7 1 0 22
2 Andranik 9 6 1 2 19
3 BKMA II 9 6 1 2 19
4 Bentonit Ijevan 8 4 3 1 15
5 Araks Ararat 8 4 3 1 15
6 Lernayin Artsakh 9 4 0 5 12
7 Pyunik II 9 3 2 4 11
8 Mika 9 3 2 4 11
9 Shirak II 8 3 1 4 10
10 Ararat II 7 3 0 4 9
11 Banants II 9 1 5 3 8
12 Noah II 9 1 3 5 6
13 Sardarapat 2 9 2 0 7 6
13 Hayq 1 0 0 1 0
14 Ararat-Armenia II 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bentonit Ijevan 8 25 16 +9 15
2 Andranik 9 23 10 +13 19
3 Olympia Yerevan 8 22 6 +16 22
4 BKMA II 9 22 11 +11 19
5 Lernayin Artsakh 9 18 21 -3 12
6 Mika 9 16 18 -2 11
7 Pyunik II 9 14 16 -2 11
8 Araks Ararat 8 13 7 +6 15
9 Ararat II 7 13 12 +1 9
10 Banants II 9 11 19 -8 8
11 Shirak II 8 10 16 -6 10
12 Ararat-Armenia II 9 9 19 -10 5
13 Noah II 9 9 24 -15 6
14 Sardarapat 2 9 8 18 -10 6
15 Hayq 1 0 3 -3 0
First League Armenia. First League Predictions