Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 / Chênois vs Naters

Prediction Audit: Chênois vs Naters Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chênois Chênois
Aug 08, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.42
4 1.18
xG Accuracy: 30%
Naters Naters

The model missed the final outcome (Naters win 3–4).

The model had projected Chênois at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chênois Naters ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Chênois; match finished Naters

Market lesson

The full-time result was Naters win 3–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Chênois 1.42 — Naters 1.18
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Naters win · 3–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2826753

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Naters win · Chênois 3–4 Naters
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 1
  • Fixture: Chênois vs Naters
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Chênois 1.42 — Naters 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Matches Track Chênois Next Match Prediction Track Naters Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Back to Predictions
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Prishtina Bern 10 7 2 1 23
2 Azzurri 9 7 0 2 21
3 Servette II 9 5 3 1 18
4 Lausanne Sport II 10 4 5 1 17
5 Sion II 10 4 4 2 16
6 Portalban / Gletterens 10 4 2 4 14
7 Monthey 10 3 5 2 14
8 Naters 10 4 2 4 14
9 Lancy 10 4 1 5 13
10 Echallens 9 3 3 3 12
11 Meyrin 10 3 2 5 11
12 Chênois 9 3 2 4 11
13 Stade Payerne 10 3 1 6 10
14 La Chaux-de-Fonds 10 3 1 6 10
15 Coffrane 10 1 4 5 7
16 Vevey Sports 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Prishtina Bern 10 27 9 +18 23
2 Azzurri 9 21 11 +10 21
3 Lausanne Sport II 10 20 12 +8 17
4 Naters 10 20 27 -7 14
5 Portalban / Gletterens 10 18 13 +5 14
6 Meyrin 10 17 14 +3 11
7 Servette II 9 17 15 +2 18
8 Lancy 10 17 18 -1 13
9 Stade Payerne 10 17 24 -7 10
10 Monthey 10 15 13 +2 14
11 Echallens 9 15 16 -1 12
12 Chênois 9 15 16 -1 11
13 Vevey Sports 10 14 27 -13 4
14 Sion II 10 13 10 +3 16
15 La Chaux-de-Fonds 10 12 29 -17 10
16 Coffrane 10 10 14 -4 7