The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Union Bremen at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Union Bremen Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Union Bremen; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Union Bremen 1.42 — Woltmershausen 1.18
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Union Bremen 2–2 Woltmershausen
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Oberliga - Bremen — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hemelingen | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Blumenthaler SV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Brinkumer SV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 4 | OSC Bremerhaven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Union Bremen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Eiche Horn | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vatan Sport | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Grohn | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Schwachhausen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | BTS Neustadt | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Geestemünde | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Leher TS | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Werder Bremen III | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Woltmershausen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Oberneuland | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OSC Bremerhaven | 8 | 33 | 6 | +27 | 19 |
| 2 | Hemelingen | 8 | 31 | 3 | +28 | 22 |
| 3 | Blumenthaler SV | 8 | 31 | 8 | +23 | 21 |
| 4 | Brinkumer SV | 8 | 28 | 7 | +21 | 21 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 8 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Vatan Sport | 8 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Geestemünde | 8 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Union Bremen | 8 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | BTS Neustadt | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Grohn | 8 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 10 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen III | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 4 |
| 12 | Schwachhausen | 8 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 10 |
| 13 | Woltmershausen | 8 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 4 |
| 14 | Eiche Horn | 8 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Leher TS | 8 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Oberneuland | 8 | 7 | 33 | -26 | 2 |
