The model missed the final outcome (Rakow II win 1–2).
The model had projected Ślęza Wrocław at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ślęza Wrocław Rakow II ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ślęza Wrocław | 36.1% | 39.2% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.0% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Rakow II | 34.2% | 33.8% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Rakow II win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Ślęza Wrocław; match finished Rakow II
Market lesson
The full-time result was Rakow II win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ślęza Wrocław 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Rakow II 34.2%
- xG · Ślęza Wrocław 1.32 — Rakow II 1.28
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ślęza Wrocław 2.27 · Draw 3.29 · Rakow II 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Ślęza Wrocław 39.2% · Draw 27.0% · Rakow II 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ślęza Wrocław 2.27 · Draw 3.29 · Rakow II 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Ślęza Wrocław 39.2% · Draw 27.0% · Rakow II 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rakow II win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 4 | Barycz Sułów | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Górnik Polkowice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Kluczbork | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Warta Gorzów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | ROW Rybnik | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 14 | Stilon Gorzów | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 15 | Rakow II | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 16 | Ślęza Wrocław | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miedź Legnica II | 9 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 11 |
| 2 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 | ROW Rybnik | 9 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Górnik Polkowice | 9 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 14 |
| 5 | Sparta Katowice | 9 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 20 |
| 6 | Stal Brzeg | 9 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Barycz Sułów | 9 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 8 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 9 | Stilon Gorzów | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Ślęza Wrocław | 9 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 6 |
| 11 | Rakow II | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 9 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 20 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 9 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 15 | Kluczbork | 9 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Warta Gorzów | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 5 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 9 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 5 |
