Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Division 1 / Al Bukayriyah vs Al-Adalah

Prediction Audit: Al Bukayriyah vs Al-Adalah Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Bukayriyah Al Bukayriyah
Aug 31, 2026 - 16:05
0 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 64%
Al-Adalah Al-Adalah

The model missed the final outcome (Al-Adalah win 0–1).

The model had projected Al Bukayriyah at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Bukayriyah Al-Adalah ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Al Bukayriyah higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al Bukayriyah -7.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al Bukayriyah 35.6% 43.5% -7.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.1% +0.6 pp Aligned
Al-Adalah 34.7% 27.4% +7.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Al Bukayriyah's win probability at 43.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Al-Adalah win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Al Bukayriyah. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Al Bukayriyah; match finished Al-Adalah

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al Bukayriyah by 7.9 percentage points (43.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Bukayriyah 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Al-Adalah 34.7%
    • xG · Al Bukayriyah 1.31 — Al-Adalah 1.29
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Bukayriyah 2.13 · Draw 3.23 · Al-Adalah 3.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Bukayriyah 43.6% · Draw 28.7% · Al-Adalah 27.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Bukayriyah 2.13 · Draw 3.19 · Al-Adalah 3.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Bukayriyah 43.5% · Draw 29.1% · Al-Adalah 27.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:05 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al-Adalah win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5403629

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al-Adalah win · Al Bukayriyah 0–1 Al-Adalah
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Al Bukayriyah vs Al-Adalah
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 16:05:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Al Bukayriyah 1.31 — Al-Adalah 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ula 5 5 0 0 15
2 Al Zulfi 6 2 4 0 10
3 Al Taee 6 3 1 2 10
4 Al Anwar 6 2 3 1 9
5 Damac 6 2 3 1 9
6 Al Jabalain 6 2 3 1 9
7 Al Wehda Club 6 1 5 0 8
8 Al-Adalah 6 2 2 2 8
9 Jeddah Club 6 2 2 2 8
10 Al Saqer 6 1 4 1 7
11 Al Najma 6 1 4 1 7
12 Al Orubah 6 1 4 1 7
13 Al-Raed 6 2 1 3 7
14 Al Akhdoud 5 1 3 1 6
15 Hajer 6 1 3 2 6
16 Al Jandal 6 1 2 3 5
17 Al Bukayriyah 6 0 2 4 2
18 Al Jeel 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ula 5 10 1 +9 15
2 Al Wehda Club 6 9 7 +2 8
3 Al Taee 6 9 9 0 10
4 Al-Adalah 6 9 9 0 8
5 Al Jandal 6 9 9 0 5
6 Al Zulfi 6 7 1 +6 10
7 Damac 6 7 6 +1 9
8 Al Najma 6 7 7 0 7
9 Al Akhdoud 5 7 7 0 6
10 Al-Raed 6 7 10 -3 7
11 Jeddah Club 6 6 7 -1 8
12 Al Anwar 6 5 3 +2 9
13 Al Saqer 6 4 3 +1 7
14 Al Jabalain 6 4 4 0 9
15 Al Orubah 6 4 4 0 7
16 Hajer 6 4 7 -3 6
17 Al Bukayriyah 6 4 11 -7 2
18 Al Jeel 6 0 7 -7 2