Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Division 1 / Al Ula vs Al Jabalain

Prediction Audit: Al Ula vs Al Jabalain Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Ula Al Ula
Aug 23, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 61%
Al Jabalain Al Jabalain

AI correctly predicted the Al Ula win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al Ula Al Ula ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Al Jabalain considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Al Jabalain +13.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al Ula 40.4% 53.6% -13.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 29.8% -0.3 pp Aligned
Al Jabalain 30.1% 16.6% +13.5 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Al Jabalain's win probability at 30.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 16.6%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al Ula win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Al Jabalain.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al Ula more conservatively (26.9% vs model 40.4%, 13.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al Ula win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Ula 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Al Jabalain 30.1%
    • xG · Al Ula 1.41 — Al Jabalain 1.19
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Ula 1.73 · Draw 3.12 · Al Jabalain 5.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Ula 53.6% · Draw 29.8% · Al Jabalain 16.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Ula 1.73 · Draw 3.12 · Al Jabalain 5.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Ula 53.6% · Draw 29.8% · Al Jabalain 16.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al Ula win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 32/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4370422

Closing Odds 5.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al Ula win · Al Ula 3–1 Al Jabalain
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Al Ula vs Al Jabalain
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Al Ula 1.41 — Al Jabalain 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ula 5 5 0 0 15
2 Al Zulfi 6 2 4 0 10
3 Al Taee 6 3 1 2 10
4 Al Anwar 6 2 3 1 9
5 Damac 6 2 3 1 9
6 Al Jabalain 6 2 3 1 9
7 Al Wehda Club 6 1 5 0 8
8 Al-Adalah 6 2 2 2 8
9 Jeddah Club 6 2 2 2 8
10 Al Saqer 6 1 4 1 7
11 Al Najma 6 1 4 1 7
12 Al Orubah 6 1 4 1 7
13 Al-Raed 6 2 1 3 7
14 Al Akhdoud 5 1 3 1 6
15 Hajer 6 1 3 2 6
16 Al Jandal 6 1 2 3 5
17 Al Bukayriyah 6 0 2 4 2
18 Al Jeel 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ula 5 10 1 +9 15
2 Al Wehda Club 6 9 7 +2 8
3 Al Taee 6 9 9 0 10
4 Al-Adalah 6 9 9 0 8
5 Al Jandal 6 9 9 0 5
6 Al Zulfi 6 7 1 +6 10
7 Damac 6 7 6 +1 9
8 Al Najma 6 7 7 0 7
9 Al Akhdoud 5 7 7 0 6
10 Al-Raed 6 7 10 -3 7
11 Jeddah Club 6 6 7 -1 8
12 Al Anwar 6 5 3 +2 9
13 Al Saqer 6 4 3 +1 7
14 Al Jabalain 6 4 4 0 9
15 Al Orubah 6 4 4 0 7
16 Hajer 6 4 7 -3 6
17 Al Bukayriyah 6 4 11 -7 2
18 Al Jeel 6 0 7 -7 2