Predictions / Football / Scotland. League Cup / Kilmarnock vs Ayr Utd

Prediction Audit: Kilmarnock vs Ayr Utd Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Aug 14, 2026 - 18:45
3 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
Ayr Utd Ayr Utd

The model missed the final outcome (Kilmarnock win 3–2).

The model had projected Ayr Utd at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ayr Utd Kilmarnock ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kilmarnock higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kilmarnock -21.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kilmarnock 34.2% 55.9% -21.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Ayr Utd 36.1% 22.1% +14.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Kilmarnock's win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 21.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kilmarnock win 3–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ayr Utd; match finished Kilmarnock

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ayr Utd by 21.7 percentage points (57.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kilmarnock 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Ayr Utd 36.1%
    • xG · Kilmarnock 1.28 — Ayr Utd 1.32
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kilmarnock 1.66 · Draw 4.23 · Ayr Utd 4.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Kilmarnock 55.9% · Draw 21.9% · Ayr Utd 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kilmarnock 1.66 · Draw 4.23 · Ayr Utd 4.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Kilmarnock 55.9% · Draw 21.9% · Ayr Utd 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kilmarnock win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3236505

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kilmarnock win · Kilmarnock 3–2 Ayr Utd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: League Cup
  • Fixture: Kilmarnock vs Ayr Utd
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Kilmarnock 1.28 — Ayr Utd 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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