Predictions / Football / India. Calcutta Premier Division / United Kolkata vs Mohun Bagan

Prediction Audit: United Kolkata vs Mohun Bagan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

United Kolkata United Kolkata
Jul 28, 2026 - 09:30
0 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
Mohun Bagan Mohun Bagan

AI correctly predicted the Mohun Bagan win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mohun Bagan Mohun Bagan ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Mohun Bagan higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mohun Bagan -8.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
United Kolkata 34.4% 28.4% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 28.9% 26.2% +2.6 pp Aligned
Mohun Bagan 36.7% 45.4% -8.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Mohun Bagan's win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.7%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mohun Bagan win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Mohun Bagan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mohun Bagan higher (45.4% vs model 36.7%, 8.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mohun Bagan win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 28, 2026 · 19:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · United Kolkata 34.5% · Draw 28.9% · Mohun Bagan 36.6%
    • xG · United Kolkata 1.34 — Mohun Bagan 1.26
  2. Jul 28, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · United Kolkata 3.13 · Draw 3.39 · Mohun Bagan 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · United Kolkata 28.4% · Draw 26.2% · Mohun Bagan 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 28, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · United Kolkata 3.13 · Draw 3.39 · Mohun Bagan 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · United Kolkata 28.4% · Draw 26.2% · Mohun Bagan 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 28, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mohun Bagan win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 56/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2109267

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mohun Bagan win · United Kolkata 0–1 Mohun Bagan
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Calcutta Premier Division
  • Fixture: United Kolkata vs Mohun Bagan
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-28 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): United Kolkata 1.34 — Mohun Bagan 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Calcutta Premier Division Calcutta Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 East Bengal 14 9 5 0 32
2 Bhawanipore 14 9 4 1 31
3 Mohun Bagan 14 9 3 2 30
4 Mohammedan 14 7 4 3 25
5 United 14 6 5 3 23
6 Coal India 14 6 4 4 22
7 Peerless 11 6 2 3 20
8 Aryan 11 5 4 2 19
9 Calcutta Customs 11 5 3 3 18
10 Calcutta Police 11 5 3 3 18
11 Police 11 4 5 2 17
12 United Kolkata 11 4 4 3 16
13 Measurers 11 3 6 2 15
14 Kalighat 11 4 2 5 14
15 Railway 11 4 2 5 14
16 Kidderpore 11 2 6 3 12
17 BSS Sporting 11 3 3 5 12
18 Patha Chakra 11 3 1 7 10
19 NA Suruchi Sangha 11 2 3 6 9
20 Rainbow 11 2 1 8 7
21 Wari 11 1 4 6 7
22 George Telegraph 11 2 1 8 7
23 Kalighat Club 11 0 3 8 3
24 Bidhannagar 11 0 2 9 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 East Bengal 14 35 8 +27 32
2 Mohun Bagan 14 35 10 +25 30
3 United 14 25 10 +15 23
4 Bhawanipore 14 24 7 +17 31
5 Calcutta Customs 11 24 12 +12 18
6 Mohammedan 14 23 16 +7 25
7 United Kolkata 11 22 16 +6 16
8 Measurers 11 21 17 +4 15
9 Peerless 11 20 9 +11 20
10 Railway 11 20 20 0 14
11 Coal India 14 19 22 -3 22
12 Aryan 11 18 6 +12 19
13 Kalighat 11 18 13 +5 14
14 BSS Sporting 11 17 21 -4 12
15 Kidderpore 11 15 18 -3 12
16 Calcutta Police 11 13 11 +2 18
17 Police 11 13 11 +2 17
18 Rainbow 11 13 31 -18 7
19 Patha Chakra 11 12 32 -20 10
20 NA Suruchi Sangha 11 11 20 -9 9
21 Wari 11 9 28 -19 7
22 George Telegraph 11 7 33 -26 7
23 Bidhannagar 11 5 31 -26 2
24 Kalighat Club 11 4 21 -17 3