Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Southwest / CSKA Sofia III vs Slavia Sofia II

Prediction Audit: CSKA Sofia III vs Slavia Sofia II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia III CSKA Sofia III
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
Slavia Sofia II Slavia Sofia II

The model missed the final outcome (CSKA Sofia III win 3–2).

The model had projected Slavia Sofia II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Slavia Sofia II CSKA Sofia III ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Slavia Sofia II; match finished CSKA Sofia III

Market lesson

The full-time result was CSKA Sofia III win 3–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · CSKA Sofia III 1.28 — Slavia Sofia II 1.32
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result CSKA Sofia III win · 3–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6150227

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CSKA Sofia III win · CSKA Sofia III 3–2 Slavia Sofia II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Third League - Southwest
  • Fixture: CSKA Sofia III vs Slavia Sofia II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): CSKA Sofia III 1.28 — Slavia Sofia II 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southwest Third League - Southwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Minyor Pernik 11 8 2 1 26
2 Oborishte 10 6 4 0 22
3 Bansko 10 7 1 2 22
4 Strumska Slava 10 6 1 3 19
5 Septemvri Sofia II 10 6 1 3 19
6 Balkan Botevgrad 11 6 1 4 19
7 Kostinbrod 11 6 0 5 18
8 Botev Ihtiman 10 5 0 5 15
9 Slivnishki geroy 11 4 2 5 14
10 Septemvri Simitli 11 3 4 4 13
11 Slavia Sofia II 10 4 0 6 12
12 CSKA Sofia III 10 2 6 2 12
13 Levski Sofia II 11 3 3 5 12
14 Belasitsa 11 3 2 6 11
15 Chavdar Etropole 11 3 1 7 10
16 Kyustendil 10 2 3 5 9
17 Natsional Sofia 11 1 4 6 7
18 Pirin Razlog 11 2 1 8 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Minyor Pernik 11 24 6 +18 26
2 Oborishte 10 22 10 +12 22
3 Bansko 10 21 13 +8 22
4 Strumska Slava 10 20 12 +8 19
5 Belasitsa 11 17 21 -4 11
6 Kostinbrod 11 16 10 +6 18
7 Slivnishki geroy 11 16 18 -2 14
8 Septemvri Sofia II 10 15 10 +5 19
9 Slavia Sofia II 10 15 14 +1 12
10 Septemvri Simitli 11 15 19 -4 13
11 Botev Ihtiman 10 14 13 +1 15
12 Levski Sofia II 11 12 14 -2 12
13 Natsional Sofia 11 12 20 -8 7
14 Chavdar Etropole 11 12 28 -16 10
15 Balkan Botevgrad 11 10 10 0 19
16 Kyustendil 10 10 16 -6 9
17 Pirin Razlog 11 9 26 -17 7
18 CSKA Sofia III 10 8 8 0 12
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria. Third League - Southwest Predictions