AI correctly predicted the Omonia Nicosia win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 48.3% | 78.2% | -29.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.4% | 14.2% | +14.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Digenis Ypsonas | 23.3% | 7.6% | +15.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Omonia Nicosia's win probability at 78.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.3%, a difference of 29.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Omonia Nicosia win 4–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Omonia Nicosia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.03)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Omonia Nicosia higher (78.2% vs model 48.3%, 29.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Omonia Nicosia win 4–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Omonia Nicosia 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Digenis Ypsonas 23.3%
- xG · Omonia Nicosia 1.57 — Digenis Ypsonas 1.03
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Omonia Nicosia 1.16 · Draw 6.38 · Digenis Ypsonas 11.88
- Implied 1X2 · Omonia Nicosia 78.2% · Draw 14.2% · Digenis Ypsonas 7.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Omonia Nicosia 1.16 · Draw 6.38 · Digenis Ypsonas 11.88
- Implied 1X2 · Omonia Nicosia 78.2% · Draw 14.2% · Digenis Ypsonas 7.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Omonia Nicosia win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | AEL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Pafos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Aris | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Digenis Ypsonas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 4 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 5 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 5 | Nea Salamis | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Apollon Limassol | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Olympiakos | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | AEL | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Pafos | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Aris | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Digenis Ypsonas | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
