AI correctly predicted the Apollon Limassol win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Apollon Limassol Apollon Limassol ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apollon Limassol | 41.9% | 64.3% | -22.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 21.4% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Anorthosis | 28.8% | 14.3% | +14.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Apollon Limassol's win probability at 64.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 22.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Apollon Limassol win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Apollon Limassol higher (64.4% vs model 41.9%, 22.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Apollon Limassol win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Apollon Limassol 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Anorthosis 28.8%
- xG · Apollon Limassol 1.44 — Anorthosis 1.16
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Apollon Limassol 1.44 · Draw 4.34 · Anorthosis 6.47
- Implied 1X2 · Apollon Limassol 64.3% · Draw 21.4% · Anorthosis 14.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Apollon Limassol 1.44 · Draw 4.34 · Anorthosis 6.47
- Implied 1X2 · Apollon Limassol 64.3% · Draw 21.4% · Anorthosis 14.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Apollon Limassol win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | AEL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Pafos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Aris | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Digenis Ypsonas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 4 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 5 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 5 | Nea Salamis | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Apollon Limassol | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Olympiakos | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | AEL | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Pafos | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Aris | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Digenis Ypsonas | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
