AI correctly predicted the Geylang International win.
The match finished 1–5, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Geylang International Geylang International ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Lions | 30.1% | 18.8% | +11.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 23.6% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Geylang International | 40.4% | 57.6% | -17.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Geylang International's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Geylang International win 1–5).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Geylang International than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Geylang International higher (57.6% vs model 40.4%, 17.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Geylang International win 1–5).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Young Lions 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Geylang International 40.5%
- xG · Young Lions 1.19 — Geylang International 1.41
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Young Lions 4.87 · Draw 3.89 · Geylang International 1.59
- Implied 1X2 · Young Lions 18.8% · Draw 23.6% · Geylang International 57.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Young Lions 4.87 · Draw 3.89 · Geylang International 1.59
- Implied 1X2 · Young Lions 18.8% · Draw 23.6% · Geylang International 57.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Geylang International win · 1–5
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata S | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata S | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 3 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 5 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Home United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Hougang United | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
