AI correctly predicted the Geylang International win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Geylang International Geylang International ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geylang International | 44.3% | 59.9% | -15.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 19.9% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Tanjong Pagar | 26.6% | 20.1% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Geylang International's win probability at 59.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Geylang International win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Geylang International than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Geylang International attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Geylang International higher (59.9% vs model 44.3%, 15.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Geylang International win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Geylang International 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Tanjong Pagar 26.7%
- xG · Geylang International 1.49 — Tanjong Pagar 1.11
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Geylang International 1.54 · Draw 4.53 · Tanjong Pagar 4.47
- Implied 1X2 · Geylang International 59.4% · Draw 20.2% · Tanjong Pagar 20.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Geylang International 1.53 · Draw 4.60 · Tanjong Pagar 4.55
- Implied 1X2 · Geylang International 59.9% · Draw 19.9% · Tanjong Pagar 20.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Geylang International win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata S | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata S | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 3 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 5 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Home United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Hougang United | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
