Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Cup / Sokol Tasovice vs Uherský Brod

Prediction Audit: Sokol Tasovice vs Uherský Brod Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sokol Tasovice Sokol Tasovice
Aug 12, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 52%
Uherský Brod Uherský Brod

The model missed the final outcome (Uherský Brod win 2–3).

The model had projected Sokol Tasovice at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sokol Tasovice Uherský Brod ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Uherský Brod higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Uherský Brod -19.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sokol Tasovice 35.6% 22.5% +13.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.6% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Uherský Brod 34.7% 53.9% -19.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Uherský Brod's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 19.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Uherský Brod win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Uherský Brod than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sokol Tasovice; match finished Uherský Brod

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sokol Tasovice by 19.2 percentage points (54.8% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sokol Tasovice 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Uherský Brod 34.7%
    • xG · Sokol Tasovice 1.31 — Uherský Brod 1.29
  2. Aug 12, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sokol Tasovice 3.95 · Draw 3.76 · Uherský Brod 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokol Tasovice 22.5% · Draw 23.6% · Uherský Brod 53.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sokol Tasovice 3.95 · Draw 3.76 · Uherský Brod 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokol Tasovice 22.5% · Draw 23.6% · Uherský Brod 53.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Uherský Brod win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3092119

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Uherský Brod win · Sokol Tasovice 2–3 Uherský Brod
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Sokol Tasovice vs Uherský Brod
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-12 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Sokol Tasovice 1.31 — Uherský Brod 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Cup Matches Track Sokol Tasovice Next Match Prediction Track Uherský Brod Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Sokol Tasovice & Uherský Brod!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Cup Czech-Republic. Cup Predictions