Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Gama vs Sao Jose

Prediction Audit: Gama vs Sao Jose Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gama Gama
Aug 16, 2026 - 19:00
4 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 32%
Sao Jose Sao Jose

The model missed the final outcome (Gama win 4–0).

The model had projected Sao Jose at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sao Jose Gama ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gama higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gama -21.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gama 32.9% 54.2% -21.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.8% +0.9 pp Aligned
Sao Jose 37.5% 17.0% +20.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Gama's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 21.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Gama win 4–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sao Jose by 21.4 percentage points (58.9% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gama 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Sao Jose 37.6%
    • xG · Gama 1.25 — Sao Jose 1.35
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gama 1.67 · Draw 3.15 · Sao Jose 5.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Gama 54.2% · Draw 28.8% · Sao Jose 17.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gama 1.67 · Draw 3.15 · Sao Jose 5.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Gama 54.2% · Draw 28.8% · Sao Jose 17.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gama win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3614681

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gama win · Gama 4–0 Sao Jose
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: Gama vs Sao Jose
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Gama 1.25 — Sao Jose 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Sao Jose
  • Model: 37.6% · Implied: 17.0% · Probability edge: +20.5 pts · Est. EV: +5.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5