Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga MX Femenil / Cruz Azul W vs Guadalajara W

Prediction Audit: Cruz Azul W vs Guadalajara W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cruz Azul W Cruz Azul W
Sep 26, 2026 - 01:00
0 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Guadalajara W Guadalajara W

The model missed the final outcome (Guadalajara W win 0–1).

The model had projected Cruz Azul W at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cruz Azul W Guadalajara W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Guadalajara W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guadalajara W -10.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cruz Azul W 35.2% 28.6% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.5% +4.1 pp Aligned
Guadalajara W 35.2% 45.9% -10.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Guadalajara W's win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Guadalajara W win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Guadalajara W than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Cruz Azul W; match finished Guadalajara W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cruz Azul W by 10.7 percentage points (45.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cruz Azul W 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Guadalajara W 35.2%
    • xG · Cruz Azul W 1.30 — Guadalajara W 1.30
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cruz Azul W 3.24 · Draw 3.63 · Guadalajara W 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Cruz Azul W 28.6% · Draw 25.5% · Guadalajara W 45.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cruz Azul W 3.24 · Draw 3.63 · Guadalajara W 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Cruz Azul W 28.6% · Draw 25.5% · Guadalajara W 45.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Guadalajara W win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10076159

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guadalajara W win · Cruz Azul W 0–1 Guadalajara W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga MX Femenil
  • Fixture: Cruz Azul W vs Guadalajara W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Cruz Azul W 1.3 — Guadalajara W 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.3% · Probability edge: +10.5 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil Liga MX Femenil — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monterrey W 9 8 0 1 24
2 América W 8 7 1 0 22
3 Tigres UANL W 9 7 1 1 22
4 Juárez W 9 7 0 2 21
5 Guadalajara W 9 6 0 3 18
6 Atlético San Luis W 9 5 1 3 16
7 Toluca W 8 5 1 2 16
8 Pumas UNAM W 9 4 1 4 13
9 León W 8 4 0 4 12
10 Atlas W 9 3 3 3 12
11 Santos Laguna W 9 4 0 5 12
12 Cruz Azul W 9 4 0 5 12
13 Pachuca W 9 3 1 5 10
14 Atlante W 9 2 1 6 7
15 Querétaro W 9 2 0 7 6
16 Tijuana W 9 2 0 7 6
17 Puebla W 9 1 0 8 3
18 Necaxa W 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 América W 8 37 7 +30 22
2 Monterrey W 9 35 10 +25 24
3 Tigres UANL W 9 29 9 +20 22
4 Atlético San Luis W 9 22 16 +6 16
5 Guadalajara W 9 20 11 +9 18
6 Toluca W 8 19 15 +4 16
7 Pumas UNAM W 9 17 14 +3 13
8 León W 8 15 12 +3 12
9 Juárez W 9 14 6 +8 21
10 Pachuca W 9 13 13 0 10
11 Puebla W 9 13 38 -25 3
12 Santos Laguna W 9 12 20 -8 12
13 Tijuana W 9 12 24 -12 6
14 Cruz Azul W 9 11 21 -10 12
15 Atlas W 9 10 17 -7 12
16 Querétaro W 9 10 21 -11 6
17 Atlante W 9 6 12 -6 7
18 Necaxa W 8 3 32 -29 0
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