AI correctly predicted the Toluca W win.
The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Toluca W Toluca W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca W | 37.5% | 61.5% | -23.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.6% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Tijuana W | 32.9% | 17.9% | +14.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Toluca W's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Toluca W win 6–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Toluca W higher (61.4% vs model 37.5%, 23.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Toluca W win 6–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Toluca W 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Tijuana W 32.9%
- xG · Toluca W 1.35 — Tijuana W 1.25
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Toluca W 1.51 · Draw 4.51 · Tijuana W 5.17
- Implied 1X2 · Toluca W 61.5% · Draw 20.6% · Tijuana W 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Toluca W 1.51 · Draw 4.51 · Tijuana W 5.17
- Implied 1X2 · Toluca W 61.5% · Draw 20.6% · Tijuana W 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Toluca W win · 6–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga MX Femenil — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | América W | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Juárez W | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Guadalajara W | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlético San Luis W | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Toluca W | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | León W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlas W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna W | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul W | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 13 | Pachuca W | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlante W | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | Querétaro W | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Tijuana W | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América W | 8 | 37 | 7 | +30 | 22 |
| 2 | Monterrey W | 9 | 35 | 10 | +25 | 24 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 9 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 22 |
| 4 | Atlético San Luis W | 9 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Guadalajara W | 9 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 | Pumas UNAM W | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | León W | 8 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Juárez W | 9 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 10 | Pachuca W | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Puebla W | 9 | 13 | 38 | -25 | 3 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna W | 9 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Tijuana W | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul W | 9 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas W | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 6 |
| 17 | Atlante W | 9 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 8 | 3 | 32 | -29 | 0 |
