Prediction Audit: Guadalajara W vs Querétaro W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guadalajara W

Aug 02, 2026 - 23:06

3 1.63

1 0.97

xG Accuracy: 68%

Querétaro W

AI correctly predicted the Guadalajara W win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Guadalajara W Guadalajara W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Guadalajara W	51.3%	80.0%	-28.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	27.8%	12.8%	+14.9 pp	Model Edge
Querétaro W	20.9%	7.2%	+13.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Guadalajara W's win probability at 80.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 51.3%, a difference of 28.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Guadalajara W win 3–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Guadalajara W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.63 vs 0.97)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Guadalajara W higher (80.0% vs model 51.3%, 28.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Guadalajara W win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 02, 2026 · 23:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guadalajara W 51.3% · Draw 27.8% · Querétaro W 20.9%
- xG · Guadalajara W 1.63 — Querétaro W 0.97
Aug 02, 2026 · 22:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guadalajara W 1.15 · Draw 7.17 · Querétaro W 12.82
- Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara W 80.0% · Draw 12.8% · Querétaro W 7.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 02, 2026 · 23:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guadalajara W 1.15 · Draw 7.17 · Querétaro W 12.82
- Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara W 80.0% · Draw 12.8% · Querétaro W 7.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 02, 2026 · 23:06 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Guadalajara W win · 3–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (29 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 02:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2127072

Closing Odds 1.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Guadalajara W win · Guadalajara W 3–1 Querétaro W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga MX Femenil
Fixture: Guadalajara W vs Querétaro W
Kickoff: 2026-08-02 23:06:00
1X2 (model): Home 51.3% · Draw 27.8% · Away 20.9%
xG (showing): Guadalajara W 1.63 — Querétaro W 0.97 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.4% · No 48.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 51.4% · No 48.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Monterrey W	9	8	0	1	24
2	América W	8	7	1	0	22
3	Tigres UANL W	9	7	1	1	22
4	Juárez W	9	7	0	2	21
5	Guadalajara W	9	6	0	3	18
6	Atlético San Luis W	9	5	1	3	16
7	Toluca W	8	5	1	2	16
8	Pumas UNAM W	9	4	1	4	13
9	León W	8	4	0	4	12
10	Atlas W	9	3	3	3	12
11	Santos Laguna W	9	4	0	5	12
12	Cruz Azul W	9	4	0	5	12
13	Pachuca W	9	3	1	5	10
14	Atlante W	9	2	1	6	7
15	Querétaro W	9	2	0	7	6
16	Tijuana W	9	2	0	7	6
17	Puebla W	9	1	0	8	3
18	Necaxa W	8	0	0	8	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	América W	8	37	7	+30	22
2	Monterrey W	9	35	10	+25	24
3	Tigres UANL W	9	29	9	+20	22
4	Atlético San Luis W	9	22	16	+6	16
5	Guadalajara W	9	20	11	+9	18
6	Toluca W	8	19	15	+4	16
7	Pumas UNAM W	9	17	14	+3	13
8	León W	8	15	12	+3	12
9	Juárez W	9	14	6	+8	21
10	Pachuca W	9	13	13	0	10
11	Puebla W	9	13	38	-25	3
12	Santos Laguna W	9	12	20	-8	12
13	Tijuana W	9	12	24	-12	6
14	Cruz Azul W	9	11	21	-10	12
15	Atlas W	9	10	17	-7	12
16	Querétaro W	9	10	21	-11	6
17	Atlante W	9	6	12	-6	7
18	Necaxa W	8	3	32	-29	0