Prediction Audit: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Khaleej Saihat

Sep 12, 2026 - 18:00

1 0.61

1 1.75

xG Accuracy: 73%

Al-Nassr

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Al-Nassr at 63.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Al-Nassr Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Al Khaleej Saihat	11.1%	10.9%	+0.2 pp	Aligned
Draw	25.2%	15.2%	+10.0 pp	Model Higher
Al-Nassr	63.7%	73.9%	-10.2 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Al-Nassr's win probability at 73.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 63.7%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Al-Nassr than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
1X2: model leaned Al-Nassr; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al-Nassr by 10.2 percentage points (73.9% vs model 63.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 12, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 11.1% · Draw 25.2% · Al-Nassr 63.7%
- xG · Al Khaleej Saihat 0.61 — Al-Nassr 1.75
Sep 12, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Khaleej Saihat 8.57 · Draw 6.18 · Al-Nassr 1.27
- Implied 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 10.9% · Draw 15.2% · Al-Nassr 73.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Khaleej Saihat 8.57 · Draw 6.18 · Al-Nassr 1.27
- Implied 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 10.9% · Draw 15.2% · Al-Nassr 73.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (10 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7467780

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Al Khaleej Saihat 1–1 Al-Nassr

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Pro League
Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 11.1% · Draw 25.2% · Away 63.7%
xG (showing): Al Khaleej Saihat 0.61 — Al-Nassr 1.75 (total xG ≈ 2.36)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 58.0% · Implied: 32.5% · Probability edge: +25.5 pts · Est. EV: +88.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 39.0% · No 61.0%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (16.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	6	0	1	18
2	Al-Ittihad FC	7	5	2	0	17
3	Al-Nassr	7	5	1	1	16
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	5	1	1	16
5	NEOM	7	5	0	2	15
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	4	0	3	12
7	Al Kholood	7	3	3	1	12
8	Al Diriyah	7	3	2	2	11
9	Al-Ettifaq	7	3	2	2	11
10	Al-Hazm	7	2	2	3	8
11	Al Riyadh	7	2	2	3	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	1	3	3	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	0	5	2	5
14	Al Shabab	7	0	4	3	4
15	Al-Fateh	7	0	3	4	3
16	Al-Faisaly FC	7	0	3	4	3
17	Al Taawon	7	0	3	4	3
18	Abha	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	23	5	+18	18
2	Al-Nassr	7	16	7	+9	16
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	16	8	+8	16
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	16	10	+6	12
5	NEOM	7	13	6	+7	15
6	Al-Ittihad FC	7	12	6	+6	17
7	Al Kholood	7	12	10	+2	12
8	Al-Ettifaq	7	11	11	0	11
9	Al Riyadh	7	8	16	-8	8
10	Al Diriyah	7	7	5	+2	11
11	Al-Hazm	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	7	11	-4	6
13	Al Shabab	7	6	11	-5	4
14	Al-Faisaly FC	7	5	13	-8	3
15	Abha	7	5	13	-8	2
16	Al-Fateh	7	4	11	-7	3
17	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	3	10	-7	5
18	Al Taawon	7	3	12	-9	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	13.7	4.9	+8.8	18
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	9.1	3.6	+5.5	16
3	Al-Nassr	7	8.4	3.0	+5.4	16
4	Al Kholood	7	10.9	7.3	+3.6	12
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	4.2	2.4	+1.8	12
6	Al-Ittihad FC	7	8.1	6.4	+1.7	17
7	Al-Ettifaq	7	6.7	5.7	+1.0	11
8	Al Diriyah	7	3.7	2.9	+0.8	11
9	Al Taawon	7	5.8	5.4	+0.4	3
10	NEOM	7	6.0	6.1	-0.1	15
11	Al Shabab	7	6.8	7.6	-0.8	4
12	Al-Fateh	7	4.5	6.9	-2.4	3
13	Al-Hazm	7	3.3	6.0	-2.7	8
14	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	4.2	7.2	-3.0	5
15	Abha	7	4.4	8.2	-3.8	2
16	Al Riyadh	7	3.4	8.5	-5.1	8
17	Al-Faisaly FC	7	4.5	9.7	-5.2	3
18	Al-Fayha	7	5.0	10.8	-5.8	6