Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Prediction Audit: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC
Sep 08, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.58
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 56%
Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah

AI correctly predicted the Al-Qadisiyah FC win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Al-Qadisiyah FC -4.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al-Qadisiyah FC 41.8% 46.2% -4.3 pp Aligned
Draw 27.5% 25.6% +1.9 pp Aligned
Al-Ahli Jeddah 30.7% 28.2% +2.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al-Qadisiyah FC win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.91) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Al-Qadisiyah FC win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 08, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 41.9% · Draw 27.5% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 30.7%
    • xG · Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.58 — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.33
  2. Sep 08, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 · Draw 3.71 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 46.2% · Draw 25.6% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 28.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 08, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 · Draw 3.71 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 46.2% · Draw 25.6% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 28.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 08, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 78/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6580295

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 27.5% · Away 30.7%
  • xG (showing): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.58 — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.91)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 44.4% · Implied: 40.6% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.9% · No 40.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 6 0 1 18
2 Al-Ittihad FC 7 5 2 0 17
3 Al-Nassr 7 5 1 1 16
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 5 1 1 16
5 NEOM 7 5 0 2 15
6 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 4 0 3 12
7 Al Kholood 7 3 3 1 12
8 Al Diriyah 7 3 2 2 11
9 Al-Ettifaq 7 3 2 2 11
10 Al-Hazm 7 2 2 3 8
11 Al Riyadh 7 2 2 3 8
12 Al-Fayha 7 1 3 3 6
13 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 0 5 2 5
14 Al Shabab 7 0 4 3 4
15 Al-Fateh 7 0 3 4 3
16 Al-Faisaly FC 7 0 3 4 3
17 Al Taawon 7 0 3 4 3
18 Abha 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 23 5 +18 18
2 Al-Nassr 7 16 7 +9 16
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 16 8 +8 16
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 16 10 +6 12
5 NEOM 7 13 6 +7 15
6 Al-Ittihad FC 7 12 6 +6 17
7 Al Kholood 7 12 10 +2 12
8 Al-Ettifaq 7 11 11 0 11
9 Al Riyadh 7 8 16 -8 8
10 Al Diriyah 7 7 5 +2 11
11 Al-Hazm 7 7 9 -2 8
12 Al-Fayha 7 7 11 -4 6
13 Al Shabab 7 6 11 -5 4
14 Al-Faisaly FC 7 5 13 -8 3
15 Abha 7 5 13 -8 2
16 Al-Fateh 7 4 11 -7 3
17 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 3 10 -7 5
18 Al Taawon 7 3 12 -9 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 13.7 4.9 +8.8 18
2 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 9.1 3.6 +5.5 16
3 Al-Nassr 7 8.4 3.0 +5.4 16
4 Al Kholood 7 10.9 7.3 +3.6 12
5 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 4.2 2.4 +1.8 12
6 Al-Ittihad FC 7 8.1 6.4 +1.7 17
7 Al-Ettifaq 7 6.7 5.7 +1.0 11
8 Al Diriyah 7 3.7 2.9 +0.8 11
9 Al Taawon 7 5.8 5.4 +0.4 3
10 NEOM 7 6.0 6.1 -0.1 15
11 Al Shabab 7 6.8 7.6 -0.8 4
12 Al-Fateh 7 4.5 6.9 -2.4 3
13 Al-Hazm 7 3.3 6.0 -2.7 8
14 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 4.2 7.2 -3.0 5
15 Abha 7 4.4 8.2 -3.8 2
16 Al Riyadh 7 3.4 8.5 -5.1 8
17 Al-Faisaly FC 7 4.5 9.7 -5.2 3
18 Al-Fayha 7 5.0 10.8 -5.8 6