Prediction Audit: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Riyadh Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Khaleej Saihat

Sep 07, 2026 - 15:30

0 1.30

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 48%

Al Riyadh

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Al Riyadh at 36.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Al Riyadh Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Al Khaleej Saihat	34.0%	42.1%	-8.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.2%	25.9%	+3.4 pp	Aligned
Al Riyadh	36.8%	32.0%	+4.8 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Al Khaleej Saihat's win probability at 42.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.0%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Al Khaleej Saihat. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Al Riyadh; match finished Draw
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al Riyadh by 8.2 percentage points (45.0% vs model 36.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 34.0% · Draw 29.2% · Al Riyadh 36.8%
- xG · Al Khaleej Saihat 1.30 — Al Riyadh 1.36
Sep 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Khaleej Saihat 2.26 · Draw 3.68 · Al Riyadh 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 42.1% · Draw 25.9% · Al Riyadh 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Khaleej Saihat 2.26 · Draw 3.68 · Al Riyadh 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 42.1% · Draw 25.9% · Al Riyadh 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6472737

Closing Odds 2.26

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Al Khaleej Saihat 0–0 Al Riyadh

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Pro League
Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Riyadh
Kickoff: 2026-09-07 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.0% · Draw 29.2% · Away 36.8%
xG (showing): Al Khaleej Saihat 1.3 — Al Riyadh 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.66)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 50.3% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 55.7% · No 44.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	6	0	1	18
2	Al-Ittihad FC	7	5	2	0	17
3	Al-Nassr	7	5	1	1	16
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	5	1	1	16
5	NEOM	7	5	0	2	15
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	4	0	3	12
7	Al Kholood	7	3	3	1	12
8	Al Diriyah	7	3	2	2	11
9	Al-Ettifaq	7	3	2	2	11
10	Al-Hazm	7	2	2	3	8
11	Al Riyadh	7	2	2	3	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	1	3	3	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	0	5	2	5
14	Al Shabab	7	0	4	3	4
15	Al-Fateh	7	0	3	4	3
16	Al-Faisaly FC	7	0	3	4	3
17	Al Taawon	7	0	3	4	3
18	Abha	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	23	5	+18	18
2	Al-Nassr	7	16	7	+9	16
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	16	8	+8	16
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	16	10	+6	12
5	NEOM	7	13	6	+7	15
6	Al-Ittihad FC	7	12	6	+6	17
7	Al Kholood	7	12	10	+2	12
8	Al-Ettifaq	7	11	11	0	11
9	Al Riyadh	7	8	16	-8	8
10	Al Diriyah	7	7	5	+2	11
11	Al-Hazm	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	7	11	-4	6
13	Al Shabab	7	6	11	-5	4
14	Al-Faisaly FC	7	5	13	-8	3
15	Abha	7	5	13	-8	2
16	Al-Fateh	7	4	11	-7	3
17	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	3	10	-7	5
18	Al Taawon	7	3	12	-9	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	13.7	4.9	+8.8	18
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	9.1	3.6	+5.5	16
3	Al-Nassr	7	8.4	3.0	+5.4	16
4	Al Kholood	7	10.9	7.3	+3.6	12
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	4.2	2.4	+1.8	12
6	Al-Ittihad FC	7	8.1	6.4	+1.7	17
7	Al-Ettifaq	7	6.7	5.7	+1.0	11
8	Al Diriyah	7	3.7	2.9	+0.8	11
9	Al Taawon	7	5.8	5.4	+0.4	3
10	NEOM	7	6.0	6.1	-0.1	15
11	Al Shabab	7	6.8	7.6	-0.8	4
12	Al-Fateh	7	4.5	6.9	-2.4	3
13	Al-Hazm	7	3.3	6.0	-2.7	8
14	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	4.2	7.2	-3.0	5
15	Abha	7	4.4	8.2	-3.8	2
16	Al Riyadh	7	3.4	8.5	-5.1	8
17	Al-Faisaly FC	7	4.5	9.7	-5.2	3
18	Al-Fayha	7	5.0	10.8	-5.8	6