Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. Pro League / Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab

Prediction Audit: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al-Hazm Al-Hazm
Aug 30, 2026 - 16:05
1 2.12
1 1.94
xG Accuracy: 57%
Al Shabab Al Shabab

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Al-Hazm at 42.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al-Hazm Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Al-Hazm considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Al-Hazm +15.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al-Hazm 42.3% 26.6% +15.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 22.3% 24.9% -2.6 pp Aligned
Al Shabab 35.4% 48.5% -13.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Al-Hazm's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.6%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Al-Hazm.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Al-Hazm; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al-Hazm by 15.7 percentage points (26.6% vs model 42.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 19:37 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al-Hazm 42.3% · Draw 22.3% · Al Shabab 35.4%
    • xG · Al-Hazm 2.12 — Al Shabab 1.94
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Hazm 3.57 · Draw 3.82 · Al Shabab 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Hazm 26.6% · Draw 24.9% · Al Shabab 48.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al-Hazm 3.57 · Draw 3.82 · Al Shabab 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Al-Hazm 26.6% · Draw 24.9% · Al Shabab 48.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:05 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 17/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5301081

Closing Odds 3.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Al-Hazm 1–1 Al Shabab
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:05:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Al-Hazm 2.12 — Al Shabab 1.94 (total xG ≈ 4.06)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 6 0 1 18
2 Al-Ittihad FC 7 5 2 0 17
3 Al-Nassr 7 5 1 1 16
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 5 1 1 16
5 NEOM 7 5 0 2 15
6 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 4 0 3 12
7 Al Kholood 7 3 3 1 12
8 Al Diriyah 7 3 2 2 11
9 Al-Ettifaq 7 3 2 2 11
10 Al-Hazm 7 2 2 3 8
11 Al Riyadh 7 2 2 3 8
12 Al-Fayha 7 1 3 3 6
13 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 0 5 2 5
14 Al Shabab 7 0 4 3 4
15 Al-Fateh 7 0 3 4 3
16 Al-Faisaly FC 7 0 3 4 3
17 Al Taawon 7 0 3 4 3
18 Abha 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 23 5 +18 18
2 Al-Nassr 7 16 7 +9 16
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 16 8 +8 16
4 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 16 10 +6 12
5 NEOM 7 13 6 +7 15
6 Al-Ittihad FC 7 12 6 +6 17
7 Al Kholood 7 12 10 +2 12
8 Al-Ettifaq 7 11 11 0 11
9 Al Riyadh 7 8 16 -8 8
10 Al Diriyah 7 7 5 +2 11
11 Al-Hazm 7 7 9 -2 8
12 Al-Fayha 7 7 11 -4 6
13 Al Shabab 7 6 11 -5 4
14 Al-Faisaly FC 7 5 13 -8 3
15 Abha 7 5 13 -8 2
16 Al-Fateh 7 4 11 -7 3
17 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 3 10 -7 5
18 Al Taawon 7 3 12 -9 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7 13.7 4.9 +8.8 18
2 Al-Qadisiyah FC 7 9.1 3.6 +5.5 16
3 Al-Nassr 7 8.4 3.0 +5.4 16
4 Al Kholood 7 10.9 7.3 +3.6 12
5 Al-Ahli Jeddah 7 4.2 2.4 +1.8 12
6 Al-Ittihad FC 7 8.1 6.4 +1.7 17
7 Al-Ettifaq 7 6.7 5.7 +1.0 11
8 Al Diriyah 7 3.7 2.9 +0.8 11
9 Al Taawon 7 5.8 5.4 +0.4 3
10 NEOM 7 6.0 6.1 -0.1 15
11 Al Shabab 7 6.8 7.6 -0.8 4
12 Al-Fateh 7 4.5 6.9 -2.4 3
13 Al-Hazm 7 3.3 6.0 -2.7 8
14 Al Khaleej Saihat 7 4.2 7.2 -3.0 5
15 Abha 7 4.4 8.2 -3.8 2
16 Al Riyadh 7 3.4 8.5 -5.1 8
17 Al-Faisaly FC 7 4.5 9.7 -5.2 3
18 Al-Fayha 7 5.0 10.8 -5.8 6