Prediction Audit: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Shabab

Aug 13, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.60

3 2.48

xG Accuracy: 74%

Al-Qadisiyah FC

AI correctly predicted the Al-Qadisiyah FC win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-3, 1-1, 2-2, 2-3 1-3 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Al Shabab	21.7%	18.1%	+3.6 pp	Aligned
Draw	20.7%	19.7%	+1.0 pp	Aligned
Al-Qadisiyah FC	57.6%	62.2%	-4.6 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al-Qadisiyah FC win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.08) — 4 goals materialised
Al-Qadisiyah FC attacking xG significantly stronger (2.48 vs 1.60)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Al-Qadisiyah FC win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 13, 2026 · 19:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Shabab 21.7% · Draw 20.7% · Al-Qadisiyah FC 57.5%
- xG · Al Shabab 1.60 — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.48
Aug 13, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Shabab 5.24 · Draw 4.80 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.52
- Implied 1X2 · Al Shabab 18.1% · Draw 19.7% · Al-Qadisiyah FC 62.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 13, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Shabab 5.24 · Draw 4.80 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.52
- Implied 1X2 · Al Shabab 18.1% · Draw 19.7% · Al-Qadisiyah FC 62.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 13, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · 1–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 65/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pass
High xG deviation from league baseline (84%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 76/100

Betting Confidence 68/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3153194

Closing Odds 1.52

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · Al Shabab 1–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Pro League
Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-13 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 21.7% · Draw 20.7% · Away 57.6%
xG (showing): Al Shabab 1.6 — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.48 (total xG ≈ 4.08)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 22.7% · Over 2.5 77.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 74.0% · No 26.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 74.0% · No 26.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	6	0	1	18
2	Al-Ittihad FC	7	5	2	0	17
3	Al-Nassr	7	5	1	1	16
4	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	5	1	1	16
5	NEOM	7	5	0	2	15
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	4	0	3	12
7	Al Kholood	7	3	3	1	12
8	Al Diriyah	7	3	2	2	11
9	Al-Ettifaq	7	3	2	2	11
10	Al-Hazm	7	2	2	3	8
11	Al Riyadh	7	2	2	3	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	1	3	3	6
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	0	5	2	5
14	Al Shabab	7	0	4	3	4
15	Al-Fateh	7	0	3	4	3
16	Al-Faisaly FC	7	0	3	4	3
17	Al Taawon	7	0	3	4	3
18	Abha	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	23	5	+18	18
2	Al-Nassr	7	16	7	+9	16
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	16	8	+8	16
4	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	16	10	+6	12
5	NEOM	7	13	6	+7	15
6	Al-Ittihad FC	7	12	6	+6	17
7	Al Kholood	7	12	10	+2	12
8	Al-Ettifaq	7	11	11	0	11
9	Al Riyadh	7	8	16	-8	8
10	Al Diriyah	7	7	5	+2	11
11	Al-Hazm	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Al-Fayha	7	7	11	-4	6
13	Al Shabab	7	6	11	-5	4
14	Al-Faisaly FC	7	5	13	-8	3
15	Abha	7	5	13	-8	2
16	Al-Fateh	7	4	11	-7	3
17	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	3	10	-7	5
18	Al Taawon	7	3	12	-9	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	7	13.7	4.9	+8.8	18
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	7	9.1	3.6	+5.5	16
3	Al-Nassr	7	8.4	3.0	+5.4	16
4	Al Kholood	7	10.9	7.3	+3.6	12
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	7	4.2	2.4	+1.8	12
6	Al-Ittihad FC	7	8.1	6.4	+1.7	17
7	Al-Ettifaq	7	6.7	5.7	+1.0	11
8	Al Diriyah	7	3.7	2.9	+0.8	11
9	Al Taawon	7	5.8	5.4	+0.4	3
10	NEOM	7	6.0	6.1	-0.1	15
11	Al Shabab	7	6.8	7.6	-0.8	4
12	Al-Fateh	7	4.5	6.9	-2.4	3
13	Al-Hazm	7	3.3	6.0	-2.7	8
14	Al Khaleej Saihat	7	4.2	7.2	-3.0	5
15	Abha	7	4.4	8.2	-3.8	2
16	Al Riyadh	7	3.4	8.5	-5.1	8
17	Al-Faisaly FC	7	4.5	9.7	-5.2	3
18	Al-Fayha	7	5.0	10.8	-5.8	6