Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Piala Presiden / Persebaya Surabaya vs PSMS Medan

Prediction Audit: Persebaya Surabaya vs PSMS Medan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya
Jul 29, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
PSMS Medan PSMS Medan

AI correctly predicted the Persebaya Surabaya win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Persebaya Surabaya higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Persebaya Surabaya -27.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Persebaya Surabaya 43.9% 71.7% -27.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.8% 16.3% +11.5 pp Model Edge
PSMS Medan 28.2% 12.0% +16.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Persebaya Surabaya's win probability at 71.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.9%, a difference of 27.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Persebaya Surabaya win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Persebaya Surabaya higher (71.7% vs model 43.9%, 27.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Persebaya Surabaya win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:18 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 43.9% · Draw 27.9% · PSMS Medan 28.3%
    • xG · Persebaya Surabaya 1.32 — PSMS Medan 1.28
  2. Jul 29, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Persebaya Surabaya 1.25 · Draw 5.50 · PSMS Medan 7.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 71.7% · Draw 16.3% · PSMS Medan 12.0%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jul 29, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Persebaya Surabaya 1.25 · Draw 5.50 · PSMS Medan 7.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 71.7% · Draw 16.3% · PSMS Medan 12.0%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jul 29, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Persebaya Surabaya win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 11:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1698889

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Persebaya Surabaya win · Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 PSMS Medan
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Piala Presiden
  • Fixture: Persebaya Surabaya vs PSMS Medan
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-29 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Persebaya Surabaya 1.32 — PSMS Medan 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Piala Presiden Piala Presiden — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 3 3 0 0 9
2 Arema FC 3 2 0 1 6
3 Tampines Rovers 3 0 1 2 1
4 DPMM FC 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Arema FC 3 4 2 +2 6
2 Persib Bandung 3 3 0 +3 9
3 Tampines Rovers 3 3 5 -2 1
4 DPMM FC 3 2 5 -3 1