Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Piala Presiden / Persebaya Surabaya vs Persija

Prediction Audit: Persebaya Surabaya vs Persija Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya
Jul 26, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Persija Persija

The model missed the final outcome (Persebaya Surabaya win 1–0).

The model had projected Persija at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Persija Persebaya Surabaya ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Persija higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Persija -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Persebaya Surabaya 34.2% 27.6% +6.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.6% +4.1 pp Aligned
Persija 36.1% 46.9% -10.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Persija's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Persebaya Surabaya win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Persija than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Persija; match finished Persebaya Surabaya

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Persija by 10.8 percentage points (46.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Persija 36.1%
    • xG · Persebaya Surabaya 1.28 — Persija 1.32
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Persebaya Surabaya 3.25 · Draw 3.50 · Persija 1.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 27.6% · Draw 25.6% · Persija 46.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Persebaya Surabaya 3.25 · Draw 3.50 · Persija 1.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 27.6% · Draw 25.6% · Persija 46.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Persebaya Surabaya win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 46/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1712434

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Persebaya Surabaya win · Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 Persija
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Piala Presiden
  • Fixture: Persebaya Surabaya vs Persija
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Persebaya Surabaya 1.28 — Persija 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Piala Presiden Piala Presiden — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 3 3 0 0 9
2 Arema FC 3 2 0 1 6
3 Tampines Rovers 3 0 1 2 1
4 DPMM FC 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Arema FC 3 4 2 +2 6
2 Persib Bandung 3 3 0 +3 9
3 Tampines Rovers 3 3 5 -2 1
4 DPMM FC 3 2 5 -3 1