Predictions / Football / Thailand. Thai League 2 / Uttaradit vs Muangthong United

Prediction Audit: Uttaradit vs Muangthong United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Uttaradit Uttaradit
Sep 04, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Muangthong United Muangthong United

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Uttaradit at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Uttaradit Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Muangthong United higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Muangthong United -16.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Uttaradit 36.1% 22.7% +13.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 27.0% +2.6 pp Aligned
Muangthong United 34.2% 50.3% -16.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Muangthong United's win probability at 50.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Muangthong United than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Uttaradit; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Uttaradit by 16.0 percentage points (52.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Uttaradit 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Muangthong United 34.2%
    • xG · Uttaradit 1.32 — Muangthong United 1.28
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Uttaradit 3.98 · Draw 3.35 · Muangthong United 1.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Uttaradit 22.7% · Draw 27.0% · Muangthong United 50.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Uttaradit 3.98 · Draw 3.35 · Muangthong United 1.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Uttaradit 22.7% · Draw 27.0% · Muangthong United 50.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5901168

Closing Odds 1.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Uttaradit 0–0 Muangthong United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Thai League 2
  • Fixture: Uttaradit vs Muangthong United
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Uttaradit 1.32 — Muangthong United 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 2 Thai League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khon Kaen United 4 3 0 1 9
2 Uttaradit 4 2 2 0 8
3 Muang Loei United 4 2 1 1 7
4 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 2 1 1 7
5 Chainat 4 2 1 1 7
6 Muangthong United 4 2 1 1 7
7 Satun 4 2 0 2 6
8 Kanchanaburi 4 1 3 0 6
9 Chiangmai United 4 2 0 2 6
10 Police Tero 4 2 0 2 6
11 Songkhla 4 1 2 1 5
12 Chanthaburi 4 1 1 2 4
13 Nakhon Pathom 4 0 4 0 4
14 Phrae United 4 1 1 2 4
15 Esan Pattaya 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mahasarakham United 4 0 3 1 3
17 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 0 2 2 2
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Satun 4 11 9 +2 6
2 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 9 7 +2 7
3 Uttaradit 4 8 5 +3 8
4 Khon Kaen United 4 7 3 +4 9
5 Muang Loei United 4 6 2 +4 7
6 Kanchanaburi 4 6 4 +2 6
7 Songkhla 4 6 5 +1 5
8 Chiangmai United 4 5 4 +1 6
9 Chainat 4 5 5 0 7
10 Chanthaburi 4 5 5 0 4
11 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 5 7 -2 2
12 Police Tero 4 4 5 -1 6
13 Phrae United 4 4 5 -1 4
14 Nakhon Pathom 4 3 3 0 4
15 Muangthong United 4 3 4 -1 7
16 Mahasarakham United 4 3 6 -3 3
17 Esan Pattaya 4 1 6 -5 4
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 6 -6 1