Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga II / Dumbrăviţa vs CSM Reşiţa

Prediction Audit: Dumbrăviţa vs CSM Reşiţa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dumbrăviţa Dumbrăviţa
Sep 22, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 57%
CSM Reşiţa CSM Reşiţa

The model missed the final outcome (CSM Reşiţa win 0–2).

The model had projected Dumbrăviţa at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dumbrăviţa CSM Reşiţa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices CSM Reşiţa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CSM Reşiţa -24.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dumbrăviţa 36.6% 19.6% +17.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.2% +7.5 pp Model Higher
CSM Reşiţa 33.8% 58.3% -24.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates CSM Reşiţa's win probability at 58.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 24.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CSM Reşiţa win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Dumbrăviţa; match finished CSM Reşiţa

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dumbrăviţa by 24.5 percentage points (61.1% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dumbrăviţa 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · CSM Reşiţa 33.8%
    • xG · Dumbrăviţa 1.33 — CSM Reşiţa 1.27
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dumbrăviţa 4.62 · Draw 4.07 · CSM Reşiţa 1.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Dumbrăviţa 19.6% · Draw 22.2% · CSM Reşiţa 58.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dumbrăviţa 4.62 · Draw 4.07 · CSM Reşiţa 1.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Dumbrăviţa 19.6% · Draw 22.2% · CSM Reşiţa 58.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CSM Reşiţa win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8988862

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CSM Reşiţa win · Dumbrăviţa 0–2 CSM Reşiţa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga II
  • Fixture: Dumbrăviţa vs CSM Reşiţa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Dumbrăviţa 1.33 — CSM Reşiţa 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga II Liga II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slatina 8 7 1 0 22
2 FC Politehnica Timisoara 8 6 2 0 20
3 CSM Reşiţa 8 6 0 2 18
4 FC Bacau 8 4 3 1 15
5 Chindia Targoviste 8 5 0 3 15
6 Popești-Leordeni 8 4 3 1 15
7 Concordia 8 5 0 3 15
8 Metalul Buzău 8 4 2 2 14
9 CS Afumati 8 4 2 2 14
10 Cetatea Suceava 8 3 3 2 12
11 Gloria Bistriţa 8 4 0 4 12
12 Metaloglobus 8 3 2 3 11
13 ASA Targu Mures 8 3 2 3 11
14 CSM Ramnicu Valcea 8 3 2 3 11
15 Bihor Oradea 8 2 3 3 9
16 Viitorul Şelimbăr 8 1 3 4 6
17 Ştefăneşti 8 2 0 6 6
18 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 8 1 2 5 5
19 Unirea Slobozia 8 1 1 6 4
20 CSM Satu Mare 8 0 4 4 4
21 Dumbrăviţa 8 0 3 5 3
22 CS Dinamo București 8 1 0 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Bacau 8 19 8 +11 15
2 Popești-Leordeni 8 19 14 +5 15
3 FC Politehnica Timisoara 8 18 7 +11 20
4 Slatina 8 17 5 +12 22
5 Chindia Targoviste 8 17 8 +9 15
6 Concordia 8 17 13 +4 15
7 Cetatea Suceava 8 15 11 +4 12
8 CSM Reşiţa 8 13 8 +5 18
9 Bihor Oradea 8 13 10 +3 9
10 Gloria Bistriţa 8 12 10 +2 12
11 CS Afumati 8 12 12 0 14
12 ASA Targu Mures 8 12 15 -3 11
13 Metaloglobus 8 11 12 -1 11
14 Unirea Slobozia 8 11 12 -1 4
15 CSM Ramnicu Valcea 8 10 13 -3 11
16 Metalul Buzău 8 9 7 +2 14
17 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 8 9 17 -8 5
18 CS Dinamo București 8 9 27 -18 3
19 Viitorul Şelimbăr 8 7 14 -7 6
20 Ştefăneşti 8 6 15 -9 6
21 Dumbrăviţa 8 5 16 -11 3
22 CSM Satu Mare 8 3 10 -7 4