Prediction Audit: FC Bacau vs Dumbrăviţa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Bacau

Sep 06, 2026 - 08:00

6 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 26%

Dumbrăviţa

AI correctly predicted the FC Bacau win.

The match finished 6–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 FC Bacau FC Bacau ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
FC Bacau	37.5%	62.0%	-24.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	21.9%	+7.8 pp	Model Higher
Dumbrăviţa	32.9%	16.2%	+16.6 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates FC Bacau's win probability at 62.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 24.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FC Bacau win 6–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FC Bacau higher (61.9% vs model 37.5%, 24.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FC Bacau win 6–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Bacau 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Dumbrăviţa 32.9%
- xG · FC Bacau 1.35 — Dumbrăviţa 1.25
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Bacau 1.46 · Draw 4.14 · Dumbrăviţa 5.58
- Implied 1X2 · FC Bacau 62.0% · Draw 21.9% · Dumbrăviţa 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Bacau 1.46 · Draw 4.14 · Dumbrăviţa 5.58
- Implied 1X2 · FC Bacau 62.0% · Draw 21.9% · Dumbrăviţa 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result FC Bacau win · 6–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (24 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6320453

Closing Odds 1.46

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result FC Bacau win · FC Bacau 6–1 Dumbrăviţa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga II
Fixture: FC Bacau vs Dumbrăviţa
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): FC Bacau 1.35 — Dumbrăviţa 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga II — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Slatina	8	7	1	0	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	8	6	2	0	20
3	CSM Reşiţa	8	6	0	2	18
4	FC Bacau	8	4	3	1	15
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	5	0	3	15
6	Popești-Leordeni	8	4	3	1	15
7	Concordia	8	5	0	3	15
8	Metalul Buzău	8	4	2	2	14
9	CS Afumati	8	4	2	2	14
10	Cetatea Suceava	8	3	3	2	12
11	Gloria Bistriţa	8	4	0	4	12
12	Metaloglobus	8	3	2	3	11
13	ASA Targu Mures	8	3	2	3	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	3	2	3	11
15	Bihor Oradea	8	2	3	3	9
16	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	1	3	4	6
17	Ştefăneşti	8	2	0	6	6
18	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	8	1	2	5	5
19	Unirea Slobozia	8	1	1	6	4
20	CSM Satu Mare	8	0	4	4	4
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	0	3	5	3
22	CS Dinamo București	8	1	0	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Bacau	8	19	8	+11	15
2	Popești-Leordeni	8	19	14	+5	15
3	FC Politehnica Timisoara	8	18	7	+11	20
4	Slatina	8	17	5	+12	22
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	17	8	+9	15
6	Concordia	8	17	13	+4	15
7	Cetatea Suceava	8	15	11	+4	12
8	CSM Reşiţa	8	13	8	+5	18
9	Bihor Oradea	8	13	10	+3	9
10	Gloria Bistriţa	8	12	10	+2	12
11	CS Afumati	8	12	12	0	14
12	ASA Targu Mures	8	12	15	-3	11
13	Metaloglobus	8	11	12	-1	11
14	Unirea Slobozia	8	11	12	-1	4
15	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	10	13	-3	11
16	Metalul Buzău	8	9	7	+2	14
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	8	9	17	-8	5
18	CS Dinamo București	8	9	27	-18	3
19	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	7	14	-7	6
20	Ştefăneşti	8	6	15	-9	6
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	5	16	-11	3
22	CSM Satu Mare	8	3	10	-7	4