Prediction Audit: Concordia vs CS Afumati Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Concordia

Sep 05, 2026 - 08:00

1 1.33

2 1.27

xG Accuracy: 75%

CS Afumati

The model missed the final outcome (CS Afumati win 1–2).

The model had projected Concordia at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Concordia CS Afumati ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Concordia	36.6%	61.0%	-24.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	22.3%	+7.3 pp	Model Higher
CS Afumati	33.8%	16.7%	+17.1 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Concordia's win probability at 61.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 24.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CS Afumati win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Concordia; match finished CS Afumati

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Concordia by 24.4 percentage points (61.0% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 05, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Concordia 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · CS Afumati 33.8%
- xG · Concordia 1.33 — CS Afumati 1.27
Sep 05, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Concordia 1.48 · Draw 4.05 · CS Afumati 5.41
- Implied 1X2 · Concordia 61.0% · Draw 22.3% · CS Afumati 16.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Concordia 1.48 · Draw 4.05 · CS Afumati 5.41
- Implied 1X2 · Concordia 61.0% · Draw 22.3% · CS Afumati 16.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result CS Afumati win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (24 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 00:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6121245

Closing Odds 1.48

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result CS Afumati win · Concordia 1–2 CS Afumati

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga II
Fixture: Concordia vs CS Afumati
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Concordia 1.33 — CS Afumati 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga II — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Slatina	8	7	1	0	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	8	6	2	0	20
3	CSM Reşiţa	8	6	0	2	18
4	FC Bacau	8	4	3	1	15
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	5	0	3	15
6	Popești-Leordeni	8	4	3	1	15
7	Concordia	8	5	0	3	15
8	Metalul Buzău	8	4	2	2	14
9	CS Afumati	8	4	2	2	14
10	Cetatea Suceava	8	3	3	2	12
11	Gloria Bistriţa	8	4	0	4	12
12	Metaloglobus	8	3	2	3	11
13	ASA Targu Mures	8	3	2	3	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	3	2	3	11
15	Bihor Oradea	8	2	3	3	9
16	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	1	3	4	6
17	Ştefăneşti	8	2	0	6	6
18	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	8	1	2	5	5
19	Unirea Slobozia	8	1	1	6	4
20	CSM Satu Mare	8	0	4	4	4
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	0	3	5	3
22	CS Dinamo București	8	1	0	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Bacau	8	19	8	+11	15
2	Popești-Leordeni	8	19	14	+5	15
3	FC Politehnica Timisoara	8	18	7	+11	20
4	Slatina	8	17	5	+12	22
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	17	8	+9	15
6	Concordia	8	17	13	+4	15
7	Cetatea Suceava	8	15	11	+4	12
8	CSM Reşiţa	8	13	8	+5	18
9	Bihor Oradea	8	13	10	+3	9
10	Gloria Bistriţa	8	12	10	+2	12
11	CS Afumati	8	12	12	0	14
12	ASA Targu Mures	8	12	15	-3	11
13	Metaloglobus	8	11	12	-1	11
14	Unirea Slobozia	8	11	12	-1	4
15	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	10	13	-3	11
16	Metalul Buzău	8	9	7	+2	14
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	8	9	17	-8	5
18	CS Dinamo București	8	9	27	-18	3
19	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	7	14	-7	6
20	Ştefăneşti	8	6	15	-9	6
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	5	16	-11	3
22	CSM Satu Mare	8	3	10	-7	4