The model missed the final outcome (Port City win 0–2).
The model had projected Bibiani Gold Stars at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bibiani Gold Stars Port City ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Bibiani Gold Stars; match finished Port City
Market lesson
The full-time result was Port City win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Bibiani Gold Stars 1.33 — Port City 1.27
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Port City win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Port City win · Bibiani Gold Stars 0–2 Port City
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samartex | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Port City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Ashanti Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Aduana Stars | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Karela | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Medeama | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Vision | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Heart of Lions | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Swedru All Blacks | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Asante Kotoko | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Debibi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Berekum Chelsea | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Dreams | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Samartex | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 4 | Ashanti Gold | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Vision | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Debibi United | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Karela | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Port City | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Dreams | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Aduana Stars | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Bechem United | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 | Basake Holy Stars | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Swedru All Blacks | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 18 | Young Apostles | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
