The model missed the final outcome (Asante Kotoko win 2–1).
The model had projected Heart of Lions at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Heart of Lions Asante Kotoko ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asante Kotoko | 33.8% | 50.1% | -16.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.5% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Heart of Lions | 36.6% | 20.4% | +16.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Asante Kotoko's win probability at 50.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Asante Kotoko win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Asante Kotoko than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Heart of Lions; match finished Asante Kotoko
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Heart of Lions by 16.4 percentage points (53.0% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Asante Kotoko 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Heart of Lions 36.6%
- xG · Asante Kotoko 1.27 — Heart of Lions 1.33
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Asante Kotoko 1.77 · Draw 3.01 · Heart of Lions 4.36
- Implied 1X2 · Asante Kotoko 50.1% · Draw 29.5% · Heart of Lions 20.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Asante Kotoko 1.77 · Draw 3.01 · Heart of Lions 4.36
- Implied 1X2 · Asante Kotoko 50.1% · Draw 29.5% · Heart of Lions 20.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Asante Kotoko win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samartex | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Port City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Ashanti Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Aduana Stars | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Karela | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Medeama | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Vision | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Heart of Lions | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Swedru All Blacks | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Asante Kotoko | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Debibi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Berekum Chelsea | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Dreams | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Samartex | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 4 | Ashanti Gold | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Vision | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Debibi United | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Karela | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Port City | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Dreams | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Aduana Stars | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Bechem United | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 | Basake Holy Stars | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Swedru All Blacks | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 18 | Young Apostles | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
