AI correctly predicted the Vision win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Vision Vision ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vision | 39.9% | 58.0% | -18.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.6% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Young Apostles | 30.6% | 15.5% | +15.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Vision's win probability at 58.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vision win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Vision than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vision higher (57.9% vs model 39.9%, 18.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vision win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vision 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Young Apostles 30.6%
- xG · Vision 1.40 — Young Apostles 1.20
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vision 1.53 · Draw 3.34 · Young Apostles 5.72
- Implied 1X2 · Vision 58.0% · Draw 26.6% · Young Apostles 15.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Vision 1.53 · Draw 3.34 · Young Apostles 5.72
- Implied 1X2 · Vision 58.0% · Draw 26.6% · Young Apostles 15.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vision win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Samartex | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Basake Holy Stars | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Karela | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Asante Kotoko | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Debibi United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Vision | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Ashanti Gold | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Port City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Aduana Stars | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Swedru All Blacks | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Bechem United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Berekum Chelsea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Young Apostles | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Medeama | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Heart of Lions | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Dreams | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Karela | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Samartex | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Debibi United | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Asante Kotoko | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Vision | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Dreams | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Ashanti Gold | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Port City | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Medeama | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Basake Holy Stars | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Aduana Stars | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Bechem United | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Swedru All Blacks | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Heart of Lions | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Young Apostles | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 3 |
